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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Killswitch who wrote (14894)	10/29/2002 10:12:47 AM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

SPX really needs to hold around 860 or above this week or else odds will increase significantly of a full retest of the Oct low. I believe that if the UN/Iraq situation plays out over the next two weeks such that the US can't get a deal, or Iraq refuses inspections due to the terms of a new deal then that very well might break the back of this market. No one will want to own stocks heading into a massive headwind of: possible consumer recession, war likely in Jan or Feb at the latest, possible large continuing liquidity outflows from equities from multiple areas (consumer, institutions, Japan possibly due to the new banking reforms). P.S. In other news the Iowa Electronic Market, which runs a futures market on the congressional elections coming up, is still showing the odds slightly favor the Republicans will not be able to control the Senate. This is also a negative for the markets. All in all, November could be a horrible month for the markets if these news flows continue negatively.

To: Killswitch who wrote (14894)	10/29/2002 10:30:39 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Hi Brian, Last year was a statistical fluke.The first of free money for 5 year financing on everything.This took what was supposed to be a 16 - 16.5 unit year to a 17.2 unit year.All this volume increase took place in about 90 days - it was the best selling 90 in history. Additionally inventories were very high vs historically low now. A substantial decline from those frothy levels closely approximates the normal rate - a headline you won't see - let alone be burried in the detail. Of course every manufacturer has a dog that doesn't sell well - consequently dealers don't order or stock i.e. Aztec. I know Ford is about to idle 4 plants - they seem to have won the High inventory award of late. The car market is another example of excess global capacity.This has resulted in declining prices for 18 years - certainly not the result of a bubble - more like healthy competitive globalization. With affordability getting lower and lower year after year - it seems to confuse many that sales continue to maintain unit volumes that are often misconstued as "Bubble Mania". It is simply economics - the more affordable autos become the more can afford/finance them.This assures continuous demand - it doesn't precede the demise of the global trade flows. Bob