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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gore who wrote (14417)	10/29/2002 10:29:20 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 16631

Confidence comparison to 1991 After the 1990/91 recession, confidence quickly jumped only to recede again late in 1991 as consumers grew frustrated with the slow pace of recovery. That experience has two important lessons for the current confidence decline. First, the magnitude of the 1991 decline was actually much greater - confidence plunged 42% from early 1991 to early 1992, while it has "only" fallen 28% from its 2002 peak. Second and most important, consumer spending not only didn't decline in 1992 following this plunge, it actually accelerated to a strong 4.3% year/year pace by the end of 1992. The 1991/92 experience offers no guarantees, but the similarities to 2002 are notable. Consumer confidence much weaker than expected The Conference Board's confidence index plunged to 79.4 in October from 93.7 in September, much weaker than the 90.0 consensus and an even bigger decline than the 5.5 drop in the Univ of Mich index. This report will increase market fears that consumer spending growth will eventually slow, though past declines in confidence this year haven't been followed by spending weakness. The market is under pressure on this report: Dow -72; Nas -17.