What's Hot in 2003 -- from Byte & Switch
[Note: Numbers 2 & 4 are important for DSS--#2, since they sold Snap, and #4, since they should sell a lot of DX-30 boxes, hopefully in combination with tape systems for archival purposes.]
Dec. 31, 1554. As he begins to write the prophecies that will eventually make him famous, the
great Nostradamus experiences a remarkable event: a visitation from the Virgin Mary.
During this sighting -- so the story goes -- Mary grants the bearded soothsayer a vision of the future.
Well, you won't believe it, but over at the Byte and Switch bungalow this New Year's
Eve, we too had a visitation. Not from the Virgin Mary, but from the God of Storage,
who granted us a rare glimpse of the storage networking market in 2003! [Ed. note:
That wasn't all we caught a glimpse of. No offense, Big G, but the pink slippers
really clashed with the orange dress.]
But back to subject at hand. It might come as shock to some of you, but storage
over IP wasn't on our visitor's list of Top Ten trends for next year. Not that it won't
happen, he boomed -- just that he can't bring himself to talk about it anymore until it
actually does. Fair enough. We won't mention it again [ed. note: not in this article,
anyway].
Herewith, the God of Storage's pronouncements for the year:
No. 10: Storage Security Gets Swallowed
Network security issues continue to be a priority in 2003, and some vendors will try
to create a separate market for network storage security. However, this technology
eventually will get baked into other products.
No. 9: The Common Information Model (CIM) Sham Exposed
Vendors talk the hind legs off a donkey about how they plan to support the Storage
Networking Industry Association (SNIA) management standards, which probably
will not mature until at least 2004, if they ever do. Then, even when they're fully
developed, they are likely to address a relatively low level of management
functionality, forcing most vendors to continue swapping APIs and writing most of
the functionality themselves anyway. Was it worth it?
No. 8: Global Namespaces Get Recognized
IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM - message board) is one of the biggest advocates of the
concept of global namespaces -- software that creates an abstraction layer
between users and their storage, hiding the location and complexity involved in
managing storage resources. Sounds a lot like virtualization, doesn't it? That's
because it is -- but it works at the file level, rather than the block level. Confused?
We'll see how well the vendors do at explaining this one. Either way, expect to hear
more about it in '03.
No. 7: The SAN... It's... It's Thinking
There will be considerable debate about where storage "intelligence" should
reside, i.e., where the data-movement controls live. The options include the storage
array, the network, or the host. The answer is: probably all of these places,
depending on a given environment. But beware of the biases of each vendor,
depending on what they are selling. Another big theme in 2003 will be software
tools that help customers consolidate their storage management applications
under a single platform. Big G reckons auto-provisioning of storage capacity
through policies will be a huge theme on the marketing front. But no one will
deploy this ability in a meaningful way until 2004.
No. 6: Utility Storage Powers Up
As IT budgets remain tight, turning the storage infrastructure into an on-demand
resource will be an important theme in 2003. Paying for storage on an as-needed
basis should help IT managers keep a lid on costs. But will it become the
paradigm? (The God of Storage smacks himself on the forehead after "paradigm"
inadvertently slips off his tongue.)
No. 5: SAN/NAS Convergence Mix-Up
The most popular way to converge the two types of storage networks in 2003 will
be to put in a NAS gateway, or head, that provides file access into data managed
within a SAN. Nevertheless, confusion over when to deploy NAS or SAN will
continue.
No. 4: Disk-Based Backup Gets Support
It's cheap, it's fast, it's instantly available. What's not to like? Big G says the low cost
of tape will make it still the preferred option for many companies, but disk-based
backup systems will nevertheless gain important ground this year.
No. 3: M&A Mania
Cash-rich public companies will suck up many of the best storage networking
startups this year, a trend that began in 2002 with Sun Microsystems Inc.'s
(Nasdaq: SUNW - message board) acquisition of Pirus and Brocade
Communications Systems Inc.'s (Nasdaq: BRCD - message board) acquisition of
Rhapsody. Believe it or not, there will also be a couple of IPOs this year. BlueArc
Corp., maybe? The God of Storage has no comment. He says the SEC's
Regulation FD (full disclosure) applies to him, too, and requests we stop asking
him difficult questions or he won't show us the No. 1 and No. 2 hot topics for next
year. (Byte and Switch editors relent.)
No. 2: Microsoft Moves In
Our visitor says Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT - message board) has a
200-strong team of programmers adding data-protection features to the .NET
server to take out Network Appliance Inc. (Nasdaq: NTAP - message board). Good
ol' Microsoft. What was that court case about, again? Anyway, Microsoft is clearly
worth paying attention to. IDC figures show Microsoft-powered storage products
accounted for one third of the market as of mid-2002. Eeek!
No. 1: Cisco Crashes FC Party
Disrupting the game as expected, Cisco Systems Inc.'s (Nasdaq: CSCO -
message board) Fibre Channel switches make good headway in 2003.
Differentiated features such as VSANs, multiprotocol support, port-level
intelligence, and tie-ins with Cisco's management software perspective make the
Andiamo boxes an appealing option for new SAN adopters used to Ethernet
networking. But Cisco's ability to focus and execute in this market has yet to be
proven. This year will be the test.
Before we could ask the All Knowing One about our own prospects for '03, he
vanished into thin air. Rats! Perhaps he'll come back in the summer for our next
birthday, and in a better dress this time.
— The Editors, Byte and Switch |
