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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (6405)	10/29/2002 2:11:09 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 306849

have to check where TOL is trading <g>

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (6405)	10/29/2002 2:21:13 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

funny -- I thought this thing was more complicated Methodology The Consumer Confidence survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO Research, Inc., an NFO Worldwide Company (NYSE:NFO), of Greenwich, Connecticut. The questionnaires are mailed to a nationwide representative sample of 5,000 households, of which roughly 3,500 typically respond. Each month, a different panel of 5,000 households is surveyed. Data are available bi-monthly from 1967 through mid-1977. Beginning June 1977, data are available monthly. The questions asked to compute the indexes have remained constant throughout the history of the series. The Index is based on responses to 5 questions included in the survey: Respondents appraisal of current business conditions. Respondents expectations regarding business conditions six months hence. Respondents appraisal of the current employment conditions. Respondents expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence. Respondents expectations regarding their total family income six months hence. For each of the 5 questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE and NEUTRAL. The response proportions to each question are seasonally adjusted. For each of the five question (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the "RELATIVE" value. for each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year 1985 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. The Indexes are then averaged together as follows: Consumer Confidence Index: Average of all 5 Indexes; Present Situation Index: Average of indexes for questions 1 and 3; Expectations Index: Average of Indexes for questions 2, 4, and 5.