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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (8559)	10/29/2002 4:09:47 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Jackass Interpretation of Messages of the Market nowadays here are the messages that investors hear and see: - we are seeing a climax of worst news - rising against bad news is very bullish - debt implosions, prosecutions, confidence lows - Fed rate cuts kicking in - best seasons are late autumn, winter, early spring - layoffs have prepared corporations for the new cycle - car sector and housing sector has saved the economy - rebalancing among institutions from bonds to stocks only trouble with the market, these are the wrong interpretations instead... here is the real message imho - more bad news is coming, in fact it is accelerating, esp with news like consumer confidence taking the biggest monthly hit I can remember in decades... forward guidance info is uniformly bad... consumer debts are rising faster than incomes... REFI nonsense is ending... with this annual NoShow Act for recovery comes an acceleration of layoffs - rising in the face of deteriorating news is a signal of false complacency in a bear market where the flat growth trajectory is seriously endangered... we are setting up for a Black Monday event much like 19987, where the market rose in the face of rising interest rates (labeled as positive in the previous September) - prosecutions might soon start anew with JPMorgan, and Enron stooley singing might soon begin new prosecutions... lawsuits have only begun to ramp up against sheister brokerages... Spitzer hasnt negotiated a final agreement with any non-Merrill party yet - Fed rate cuts FAILED... FAILED... FAILED... another rate cut was the foundation behind the failed rally in August, since new lows were seen by October 1st... another rate cut will amplify the ineffectiveness of the Blunt Policy... try ot find some creditworthy borrowers in this mess... the refusal of FOMC to cut rates on Nov 6th will send a torpedo into the flank of S.S.StdPoor - Christmas is the best retail season, so watch for the biggest disappointment... mall traffic is down... 1 in 5 Boston Newbury Street shops are empty... typically big now means biggest train wreck in retail... biggest false expectations usually lead to biggest letdowns... shallow thinking here - layoffs have done nothing to repair balance sheets... if anything layoffs have depleted cash reserves further with severance packages... unemploymt rate is still 5.7% and another full 1.0% to 1.5% is coming imho... next round of shitty retail will signal continued extinction of capex, followed by yet more layoffs - car sector with its 0% DP, 0% interest, no payments for 90 days tells me of imminent debt problems... since cost of layoff exceeds cost of car giveaways, debt will rule here... housing is a massive whitehead zit awaiting the brutal force of teenage fingers pressed to pop contents upon a mirror - rebalancing will now set up both stocks and bonds for imminent losses... a risk premium must be instilled for bond yields so as to compensate for currency risk... next up losses will be evenly balanced... confirmation comes with the comatose USdollar during a 20% rise in stocks since Oct 1st !!! ... thus, the stock rally is but a CIRCLE JERK among American clueless LOW PRESSURE ZONE AHEAD, LOOK OUT BELOW / jim