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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: yard_man who wrote (8564)10/29/2002 5:01:51 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 89467
 
not true, unless collapsed debt is too big

at first the banks absorb the losses
if Hibernia sees bigtime losses with their credit portfolio, then HIB shholders take the loss, which immediately is paid for out of firm treasury funds
not taxpayers

if Sears has tons of bad debt from Discover cards, then the loss is eaten by S shholders
not taxpayers

if Ford declares BK, then different story
then since too big an employer to fail, we will see FedGovt takeover, which I expect before 2004, with taxpayer assumption of debt obligations and pension/health obligations

if JPMorgan is as dead as I am told, then the Federal Reserve will absorb the losses, and it is very unclear to me whether the member regional banks collectively take the hit, or whether the DeptTrez takes the hit... maybe both, possibly just taxpayers via DeptTrez, unsure

anywhere that a failure threatens the entire economy, or a critical supplier to the US Military (viz Chrysler 1980), then you will see federal bailout of some sort
the Chrysler bailout was hugely successful, with loans paid off with interest early, and no loss to taxpayers

I expect the entire US Economy to be threatened with liquidation
I expect 20% of all US Households to file for bankruptcy before 2010
I expect two dozen major corporate names to follow Polaroid, WorldCom, KMart into oblivious ignominy

/ jim