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To: reaper who wrote (201044)10/30/2002 9:40:52 AM
From: JRI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Reaper...maybe you didn't get my whole point (not well written)..

Of course I see deflation in those things you mentioned...but how often does one buy a car (Me, once every 5 years, if that)...

I buy a lot of cereal though

Furniture? I buy selective things I like (probably like most folks), not just rooms-to-go standard sofa. I haven't seen the price of nice furniture go down (the few things we've purchased recently), but I could be wrong. The black halogan lamp (tall, thin) that everyone seems to have.....wish I had invented that.

I am gagging at what my daughter's college is going to cost, compared to what I paid-even w/Master's- not THAT long ago.

Consumer electronics? Don't buy a lot, but if you ask me, kids' electronics costs are likely higher now, than years ago....they keep coming out with big-time video games, with big price tags...TV prices seem flat, but one of my TVs is 11 years old, so don't know much there.

Movie tix, concessions are higher. Pro sports tix prices generally higher. My pool service charges more. My gardener wants a raise.

Telecom services....OK, let's see....I used to have a long distance bill....now I replaced that with a cellular....sure, now I call everyone more, but I am still spending the same! g

I guess my point is that....for many, many lives...."inflationary" forces are impacting as much/more than deflationary....Even if some big tix items and/or overall trend is lower. Maybe I just buy the wrong stuff ng

cheers..



To: reaper who wrote (201044)10/30/2002 9:57:18 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
three out of those four services categories are insulated from making reductions by direct government spending and indirect subsidies. one could argue the fourth is to some extent as well. you left out insurance which is going up as well.

many warranties have been taken off the price of the goods, such as furnaces, air conditioners, computers, and electronics, and sold as add-on items. that can add 20-25 percent to the price of a purchase such as a furnace we purchased recently.

the easiest way to measure inflation is to ask how much of a wage increase people need for the coming year to offset living costs. i think since the government gave itself nearly a 4 percent increase, that seems about right. in addition, public opinion polls show inflation expections range from about 3 to 6 percent depending on the demographic.



To: reaper who wrote (201044)10/30/2002 10:14:11 AM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Best recent piece on deflation:

Global: A Conversation with Franco Modigliani
Stephen Roach (New York)

morganstanley.com