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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (12747)	10/30/2002 1:01:30 PM
From: h8_2_b_l8	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Sept high on SPX would definitely be a target if we see those DT break. I think they had the interns looking at that AV on the SPX this morning. It took about 30 minutes for it to register. I still don't think we see 1347 before we at least see 1255. Our low yesterday was so ambiguous from a retrace/consolidation stand point, it doesn't make sense. I guess it doesn't have to when you have a mass conductor behind the giant curtain. I like the election year Nov - April possibility. A 53.5% haircut in that time period would line up nicely if we were to continue up to the August highs here.

To: Jeff who wrote (12747)	10/30/2002 3:44:50 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 30712

Interesting analysis...comparison of current bear with '29. urbansurvival.com <<SUMMARY: The real bottom of the Dow Jones Industrial Average depends on how long the market remains in the current down trend. If the DJIA continues in the current down channel, the actual bottom of this Bear Market may not occur until Feb 2007 (DJIA between 1200 and 2200). If the actual bottom occurs in 2005, the actual value of the DJIA would be about 2800 points higher with a bottom around 4500 to 5000) consistent with a long term inflation rate of 3.5% (actually a devaluation of currency by printing more money). However, there is a technical support line at about 6200 for the DJIA in 2002. We are in a long term Bear Market which will be characterized by short but sharp rallies based on position of 36-week cycle (not just tops and bottoms) with a final bottom in 2007! After Feb 2007, we could lead into a major market rally by hyping Internet stocks for 2008 Chinese Olympics! Mr George Ure was correct - we are replaying the 1929 Crash except the 36-week cycle has changed phase and grown much larger in magnitude. Write when you see a bear! (Again, our thanks to Dr. Rinehart for sharing this wonderful analysis with us. He's also sent some additional materials that are on the subscriber side of the site now - and which I hope to have time to migrate over here something this week. Oh year, one other thing. Where does Dr. Rinehart see the market at year's end? Oh around 6,000 and possibly lower. It's interesting to hear him say that because it echo's our own work that suggests a yearend target around 5,800...