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To: Shack who wrote (58112)	10/31/2002 1:13:35 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 209892

FWIW I'm in the turbomachinery business, as an engineer, and know GE's end of this business, i.e. the GE Power Systems group. I do business with them regularly. Don't know what portion of GE this amounts to, but it is significant. MO - GE is in real trouble and not only on the PS end. On the PS side they bought assets galore in the latter 90's, many of which I have not a clue as to why. Too big for their britches and got too many big ideas as near as I can tell. It seemed they wanted to literally corner the markets and eliminate all competition, but rather than doing this in the market place they just bought out the competition, in many instances. Many of the assets they purchased were of course in hindsight over priced, and in best of times not that great on the profitability end in any event. The turbomachinery business is very cyclical, very capital intensive and consists primarily of power, aero, and petroleum segments. All three areas I think are coincidentally going into a somewhat prolonged and deep down cycle. In the PS end they are currently doing some reorg, or in short cutting back and consolidating. I expect much more. And then we could discuss GE capital ..... Welch the great CEO. History may grade him otherwise, and before he hits his grave. With respect to turbomachinery Rolls Royce on the other hand took a much more back seat approach, in part due to lack of capital. They committed some other blunders, but may come out okay. It has been speculated for some time that the world markets can not continue to support the 3 main entities in the aero jet engine business - Rolls, GE and Pratt & Whitney. Before this decade is over maybe it will be proven true, and maybe the Ruskies will come forth with some low cost competition as well.