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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (6565)	10/31/2002 8:46:19 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95536

From Briefing.com: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures market took a dip on the heels of the weaker than expected Q3 GDP and Initial Claims reports, but soon recovered... All in all, not much reaction to the data as the market's focus had already shifted to the pace of Q4 GDP growth, which is likely to cool from Q3; meanwhile, claims data haven't done much to alter view that labor market remains fairly flat GDP a bit weaker than expected; claims higher. GDP rose a healthy 3.1% in Q3, a bit weaker than the 3.6% consensus. This report is unlikely to have much impact given that the focus has already shifted to Q4, and a likely cooling of the GDP growth pace. Jobless Claims continued their recent seesaw pattern, jumping 16K to 410K vs the 400K consensus, and continuing claims jumped 76K. These claims figures have been all over the map recently, which most likely suggests a continued flat labor market. Employment Costs only rose 0.8% vs the 0.9% consensus, but this report is of little concern now given the lack of inflation fears. 7:59AM GDP seen up 3.6%; Employment Costs seen up 0.9% : A two-day deluge of economic reports begins at 8:30 ET with GDP, Employment Costs, and Jobless Claims. A strong Q3 GDP gain of 3.6% is expected, but probably won't result in much more optimism as the market is now focussed on Q4, which is likely to weaken from the strong Q3 pace. Employment Costs are expected to rise 0.9% in Q3; this report will not be a major focus as the market is not concerned about wage pressures and inflation. Jobless Claims are expected to edge back up to 400K from 389K in the prior week; the recent trend has been more encouraging, with two sub-400K readings in the last three weeks. 7:42AM Amkor upped to Sector Outperform at CIBC; target $6 (AMKR) 3.18: CIBC World Mkts upgrades to SECTOR OUTPERFORM from Sector Perform following improved Q3, increased post-restructuring leverage toward break even by Q3 next yr, and delay of liquidity concerns beyond 2005. Price target $6. 7:28AM UBS downgrades 3 semi names: CREE, MSCC, ARXX : UBS downgrades Cree (CREE) to REDUCE from Hold on valuation; Microsemi (MSCC) to HOLD from Buy due to concerns about lack of visibility as company exits nonstrategic business lines; Aeroflex (ARXX) to HOLD from Buy on concerns about margin compression in Sep qtr. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+AMKR+ARXX+BRCM+CREE+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MSCC+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^VIX+^IXIC+^SPX+SMH&d=t RtS

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (6565)	10/31/2002 9:00:59 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Well, I hope thousands like you still think LRCX is a great short as you might have to cover and drive it right up to $15 in no time. I see you believe in the "Plunge Protection team" so I won't argue with you. Message 18107605 I gave up windmills for Lent. I would just caution you that words like "earnings were 1/2ed" make me chuckle as earnings were only 2¢ last quarter and it would not take many orders as a percentage of total revenue to make that go up 5x. If that is all the reason you have to be short, then I will probably hold my shares longer. :) Good luck, but I hope I pocket your money when you cover. :) Kirk