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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (124978)	10/31/2002 10:51:29 AM
From: foundation	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

re: "..just ask Nokia, a giant who has struggled for a long time trying to manufacture its own CDMA ASICs without Q's assistance.." Hey c2, Actually, with considerable Q assistance over the years. Plus a patch or two for defective, non-standard compliant product. LOL!

To: carranza2 who wrote (124978)	11/1/2002 9:03:17 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

They have been successful because they involve the manufacture of simple goods like tennis shoes and rudimentary electronic equipment. Like pocket calculators? Fortunately for Q, the manufacture of CDMA ASICs is an extremely complex undertaking--just ask Nokia, a giant who has struggled for a long time trying to manufacture its own CDMA ASICs without Q's assistance. What is simple today my friend is trivial a decade from now, and I would be willing to bet my retirement on the fact that China does the same favor to Qualcomm that it's done to every other multinational that's tried to do business there. The manufacture of ASICs is trivial. Getting the masks right is a pain in the rear. Nokia is not struggling to take Qualcomm's masks and fab 'em. Nokia is struggling to make its own ASICSs. Not surprising for a company that used to be in the shoe business. Big difference. Indeed, I am suggesting to you that Qualcomm is being forced to be complicit in this process. Which brings us to Not a single domestic Chinese manufacturer is licensed. The present licensees are Infineon Technologies AG, Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V., LSI Logic Corporation, PrairieComm Incorporated, NEC Corporation, and Texas Instruments. Fine. These are the present licensees. Is this the forever list? What about the future licensees? I am merely suggesting that another might be added to the list, as a consequences of forces somewhat tectonic in nature. Really the whole discussion is pointless if we look only at what exists in front of us and extrapolate status quo into the future. The future is likely to look quite a bit different from today, and the trajectory of that difference is likely to follow the lines of force that have been marked out and established. Of course, we could always use this same argument to suggest that for some reason Qualcomm might achieve what other foreign nationals have not managed to do, or that China's 1000's of year old culture of assimilation would undergo radical transformation just in time for Qualcomm to be a major beneficiary. Or extrapolate along entirely new uncharted strategic directions... the future is laden with infinite possible alternatives. Some of which are merely more likely than others. True, nothing is certain. That's why we can disagree so easily. But the lines are clearly drawn. I believe that an established pattern is likely to unfold, and you do not. No big deal. Perhaps we should mark this discussion and return to it later, say in about a decade or so. Personally, I would place my money on China as being a net negative source of wealth for Qualcomm shareholders, and in my modelling I would put it as having a direct value contribution of zero. To my way of thinking Tom actually hit on the real reason China is an important market and why Qualcomm is forced to tread this dangerous path. The key is not profits in every market, but presence in every market. The reason Qualcomm MUST engage in strategic boondoggles is to purchase presence. Not because it's a philanthropic organization, and not because the Clueless GSM Cabal isn't aware of Brazil as a possible source of people that talk to other people by walking around. And not because the folks in Qualcomm's strategic investment department would be better off lobotomized. There is a good (albeit expensive) reason. Qualcomm is FORCED to do business in China (and everywhere else for that matter) in order that there is no significant corner of the planet where CDMA is not viable. One of the small side effects of being #2 to GSM and trying to be #1. John