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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gao seng who wrote (312735)	10/31/2002 2:03:20 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Respond to of 769670

Novak also predicted a win for Bush in 92 and a win Dole in 96.

To: gao seng who wrote (312735)	10/31/2002 2:09:17 PM
From: gao seng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

I take it back on Gore: newsday.com Banking on Wellstone's Legacy Democrats hope for edge in election Washington - Democratic leaders, searching for an edge at the close of a fiercely contested midterm election, are hoping the emotions generated by Sen. Paul Wellstone's death will ripple beyond Minnesota and give their candidates a boost in the battle for control of Congress. Three prominent Democrats - Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York - have pointedly invoked Wellstone's name and political legacy in recent campaign appearances across the country. "I think there is a new chemistry out there," Daschle said Monday at a rally for Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa). "There is so much more energy than there was two or three weeks ago. I think part of the reason for that is that people lament Paul Wellstone's passing and want to do this in part for him." Gore, campaigning for a Democratic Senate candidate in Maine, told a rally: "If Paul Wellstone were here he'd say, 'Vote Democratic and stand up for the little guy.'" Clinton, stumping for New York Democratic gubernatorial nominee H. Carl McCall, asserted a connection between McCall and Wellstone's "unique voice in American politics." The outpouring of emotion over Wellstone's death in a plane crash Friday reached a crescendo last night in a memorial service attended by thousands of Minnesotans - as well as top Democratic leaders such as Daschle, Gore and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts. Most neutral political observers say this emotional tide boosts Democratic prospects of holding Wellstone's seat but is unlikely to have great political impact outside Minnesota. They suggested that party leaders were trying to create a "Wellstone factor" largely because their previous attempts to nationalize the election around economic issues have been unsuccessful. "It takes too many steps for the average person to get from Wellstone's tragic death to voting Democratic in their local districts," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who is tracking the campaigns. "It's a bridge too far." But several observers said the win-one-for-Wellstone theme could be useful in energizing the party's core constituencies to go to the polls and motivating Democratic activists to perform the dull but necessary tasks associated with voter turnout efforts. "The press coverage has been so positive, it almost constitutes a national ad for the Democrats," said Ken Warren, a political scientist at St. Louis University in Missouri who studies voter behavior. "The sympathy factor carries over to the party." Warren also noted one state outside Minnesota where Wellstone's death could be an important factor: Warren's own state of Missouri, scene of a highly competitive Senate race between Democratic incumbent Jean Carnahan and Republican challenger Jim Talent. Carnahan is in the Senate because her husband, then-Gov. Mel Carnahan, died in a plane crash shortly before Election Day in 2000. Mel Carnahan remained on the ballot as the Democratic nominee for the Senate; when he won posthumously, his wife was appointed to the vacancy. Jean Carnahan has been trailing Talent in recent polls and is widely regarded as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the Senate. But the eerie similarities between the deaths of her husband and Wellstone could trigger an echo of the sympathy factor that helped propel Carnahan to victory in 2000, Warren said. "This is the last thing Jim Talent wanted," Warren said. "It would do nothing but remind people of the terrible loss Jean Carnahan suffered in almost identical circumstances." Warren said the net effect could be a boost to Carnahan of between 1 and 3 percentage points - not much, but enough to make a difference in a close race. Other observers caution that they have yet to see an impact from Wellstone's death in the Missouri contest. In fact, said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Washington newsletter, The Cook Political Report, Missouri Republicans told her they expected to see some impact over the weekend - and were pleasantly surprised when they didn't.