Ehrlich up by one...cross your fingers.
NEWS4 Poll: Race Gets Tighter For Md. Gubernatorial Candidates
One More Week Until The General Elections
POSTED: 6:13 p.m. EST October 30, 2002
UPDATED: 1:58 p.m. EST October 31, 2002
nbc4.com
WASHINGTON -- The two gubernatorial candidates in Maryland are working hard to get out the vote just one week before the general elections, NEWS4 reports. The latest NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Ehrlich is once again leading Democrat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And, voter turn out could be a key in the campaign's final days, NEWS4 reports.
The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday shows Ehrlich taking a one percentage point lead over Townsend. It has been a back-and-forth battle, but Ehrlich currently has 47 percent to Townsend's 46 percent.
Last month, it was Townsend who was ahead by one point. But, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, the race continues to be a dead heat.
Dr. Karen O'Connor, a professor of government at American University, talked to NEWS4 about the campaign landscape. "Everyone wants to be the person with momentum going into the election the weekend before," she said.
NEWS4 reports Townsend has an overwhelming lead in Baltimore city, and is well ahead of her opponent in the Washington suburbs -- Montgomery and Prince George's counties.
But, Ehrlich is expected to win every other region of the state. The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows him leading in Baltimore County, the central Maryland suburbs, the eastern shore and western Maryland. (See map, at left.)
Larry Harris, who is with Mason-Dixon polls, spoke with NEWS4 about the campaigns, and how they've progressed.
"He's been running pretty much a mistake-free campaign. He seems to have been able to successfully blunt the charges of being a right-wing Republican, or, the Democratic party would say, he's been able to disguise his record," Harris said.
Ehrlich is leading among males and whites, as seen below.
Male voters
Ehrlich, 55 percent
Townsend, 42 percent
White voters
Ehrlich, 58 percent
Townsend, 34 percent
But, NEWS4 reports Townsend has the overwhelming lead among African-Americans and women, as seen below.
African-American voters
Townsend, 86 percent
Ehrlich, 9 percent
Women voters
Townsend, 51 percent
Ehrlich, 39 percent
Analysts say voter turnout will be a major factor in determining who will become Maryland's next governor.
O'Connor told NEWS4 a low turnout could cost Townsend the election.
"She's got to get voters out in traditionally African-American neighborhoods, she's running very strongly with African-American voters. And, she's running very strongly with women voters. So, she has to make certain that those two groups, and people who are very concerned about gun control, hear her message and get out and vote," she said.
O'Connor says the weekend before the election is always important, but this year takes on special significance. She says many voters in the Washington-area haven't been tuned into politics because of the sniper killings. She says a lot of decisions could be made this weekend, and both parities are making an extraordinary effort to get out the vote.
Harris said if Ehrlich can cut into Townsend's base -- just a little -- then he'll be the one headed to Annapolis.
"He's only gotta make a smidgen of difference. The race is so close at this point, he's doing what he's got to do in this state for a Republican to get elected. And, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not doing what a Democrat has to do in Baltimore city, Prince George's County and even in progressive Montgomery County," he said.
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