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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (3472)	10/31/2002 4:34:24 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

That would be the valuation put on it by the earlier posts. I was giving a worst case (as bankruptcy is not an option if company insiders want any equity value at all - equity almost always wiped out in bankruptcy which is why worst case is likely handover of 70-80% of the company to the LYONs holders). Jon

To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (3472)	10/31/2002 5:17:38 PM
From: fred hayes	Respond to of 10345

>>What happens if 100% of the Lyons are paid off in cash ? << It would be a disaster at the worst-case price of $1 in Jonathan's "what-if" post. There would then be 1.35 billion shares, with current stockholders (.35 billion shares) owning only 35/135, or 26 percent. Equity would increase $1 billion, bringing the total to $3.3 billion, or $2.44 using the break up values in my post. But I don't think that will be allowed to happen. I have to assume that people are going to do their jobs and normal market mechanisms will prevail. If not, things could unravel just like Jonathan's worst case prospect. What I'd like to do is focus on what is a reasonable downside risk. That's why I did the first draft of the break-up analysis. I'm hoping to get some confidence in the numbers. If we can establish a reasonable worst case breakup for, say even $1.50 a share, then I'm feeling pretty good. So if anybody has any opinions on the specific line items in post 3460, please post them. Of course, the worst-case is only one side of this coin, and the opportunity is clear. If Elan gets over this crisis and continues as a going concern post-Antegren or an Alzheimer breakthrough, the upside is just too good to be true. The better I feel about the worst case, the more I can bet on Elan's surviving as a going concern.