Polls: Shaheen leads
Sununu, but barely
Staff and wire reports
Bolstered by independent voters, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen holds a narrow lead over U.S. Rep. John E. Sununu in their epic U.S. Senate battle, according to two new polls. A third survey puts Sununu ahead.
The WMUR-UNH poll shows Shaheen leading by 4 percent.
An American Research Group survey puts Sununu up by 2 percent.
A Franklin Pierce College-WNDS poll gives Shaheen a 5 percent lead.
According to the WMUR-UNH poll of 680 likely voters, Shaheen leads 46 percent to 42 percent, with 2 percent favoring Libertarian Ken Blevens, 2 percent writing in someone such as Sen. Bob Smith, and 7 percent undecided.
Republicans lead in the three other major races.
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For governor, Craig Benson led Mark Fernald, 49 to 37 percent, with 2 percent for Libertarian John Babiarz.
For 1st District U.S. House, Jeb Bradley led Martha Fuller Clark, 49 to 31 percent, with 2 percent for Libertarian Dan Belforti.
For 2nd District U.S. House, incumbent Charles Bass led Katrina Swett, 47 to 41 percent, with 3 percent for Libertarian Rosalie Babiarz.
In this poll, the Senate race is a tale of two races. Sununu leads in the 1st District, 49 to 39 percent, while Shaheen leads in the 2nd District, 54 to 36 percent.
Independents are the largest voting group in the state, at 37.3 percent of the electorate, compared with 36.7 percent Republican and 25.8 percent Democrat. The poll was conducted Oct. 23 to 28 and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent in the statewide races.
UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith said Shaheen leads among that key independent swing voter category, 44 to 34 percent.
“In the last several weeks,” he said, “Shaheen has actively pursued swing voters by emphasizing her political independence and her pro-choice position. This has paid off.”
The director said his poll indicates that an unofficial write-in campaign for Sen. Bob Smith, who was defeated by Sununu in the September primary, “is showing little direct impact.”
He said that among those who say they voted for Bob Smith in September, 14 percent say they plan to vote for Shaheen. Earlier this month, 26 percent of that group said they will vote for Shaheen. He said 3 percent of Republicans who voted for Smith in the primary say they won’t vote in the Senate race but will vote in other races.
Andrew Smith noted that “2 percent of all likely voters say they plan to vote for a candidate not officially listed on the ballot, which would include (Bob) Smith.”
Some key factors in the UNH poll:
Shaheen leads in northern, western and central parts of the state, while Sununu leads in Hillsborough County. The race is a draw on the Seacoast.
The race is a draw among those 45 or older, including the much-coveted over-65 group. Shaheen leads narrowly among younger Granite Staters.
There is a clear gender gap, with Shaheen leading 52 percent to 37 percent among women and Sununu leading 48 percent to 40 percent among men.
Sununu leads 50 percent to 39 percent among those who own a gun; Shaheen leads among those who do not, 52 percent to 37 percent.
In the American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters, Sununu leads with 48 percent, Shaheen with 46 percent and Libertarian Ken Blevens with 1 percent. Five percent are undecided. The sampling margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The new poll was conducted by telephone from Monday through Wednesday. The poll does not address the write-in effort by supporters of incumbent Sen. Bob Smith, who lost to Sununu in the GOP primary. In a press release, ARG suggested that Shaheen was being hurt by a few Democrats who were defecting to Blevens.
A poll by ARG last week with a 6 percent margin of error also had Sununu at 48 percent and Shaheen at 46 percent. Though Sununu led in earlier ARG polls, up by as much as 21 points in an Oct. 2 poll, Shaheen has been gaining, particularly among independent voters. In the new poll, Shaheen is favored 55 percent to 39 percent among independents. In the race for governor, ARG had Benson leading Fernald 52 percent to 36 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The sampling margin of error is 4 percentage points. In races for Congress, the poll in the 1st District has Bradley ahead of Clark 52 percent to 42 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Bass is leading Swett 55 percent to 38 percent, with 7 percent undecided, in the 2nd District. The margin of error in the congressional polls was 6 points.
In a poll of 926 voters by the Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communications at Franklin Pierce College for WNDS-TV, Shaheen leads Sununu, 45 percent to 40 percent. Blevens is backed by 2 percent with 10 percent undecided.
The final 2 percent chose “other.” Just over half of that small group said they would write in Smith; most of the rest had backed Smith in the primary, but would not specify who they would support on Nov. 5.
Rich Killion, director of the Fitzwater Center, noted that Shaheen’s lead is built on her 2-1 edge among independent voters. One potential edge for Sununu might be his appeal to voters who have not yet decided. Two-thirds of those with a preference are leaning towards the Republican.
In the race for governor, Benson holds a 44 percent to 36 percent lead over Fernald, with John Babiarz at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided. Although no other names are on the ballot, 1 percent of the 930 voters surveyed backed “other.”
Again, Fernald, the Democratic nominee, has an edge among independent voters, 42 percent to 35 percent. The margin of error for the statewide polls was 3 percent.
In the 1st District House race, Bradley leads Clark 43 percent to 36 percent with 19 percent undecided. Belforti takes 1 percent, as does “other.” While Clark leads among independents, Bradley shows unusual strength among women, running even with the Portsmouth Democrat.
In the 2nd District, Bass holds a comfortable 52 percent to 33 percent lead over Swett. With 12 percent still undecided, 1 percent backs Rosalie Babiarz and 2 percent chose “other.”
The margin for error in the House polls was 4.5 percent. The FPC surveys were taken from Oct. 27 to 30.
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