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To: rgjack who wrote (58254)11/1/2002 9:49:18 AM
From: velociraptor_  Respond to of 209892
 
FWIW, measuring distance and percentage gains like that is completely inaccurate as data because the start and end frame is purely coincidental and fixed. The DOW made a move off the July low to the end of the month of roughly the same percentage. It just happened that the month started at a higher level. If you arbitrarily move the monthly period to start on the 15th of each month and go to the 15th of the next then the July to Aug period becomes a whopper of a period in terms of an advance with the DOW gaining almost 20% and the Sept Oct period becomes flat with practically no change at all.

You can pick any date in the month as a start point and come up with 30 different points of analysis. To choose the 1st of the month just because it is the first of the month eliminates 29 potential data points.



To: rgjack who wrote (58254)11/1/2002 10:00:16 AM
From: John Madarasz  Respond to of 209892
 
thxs...that fits in with my scenario for a sideways down November...i still think the 1st 8 days of the month have the strong possibility to finish positve with a cumulative net % gain

i'd love to see the 200 ma's get tested earlier in the month...then selloff

gotta play it as it unwinds tho

Best of luck, and thxs agn for the info

jm