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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (6596)	11/1/2002 12:18:31 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

RtS, I participate less in the discussion lately because I think there is nothing new to say. Or, maybe I just lack imagination. :) I have Zeev's iHub traders thread bookmarked, but scan the hundreds of message headers only and read maybe 5%. One persistent theme there is that several smart posters think the market is manipulated because it's going up. I'm agnostic about that, to save time. This weekend I may make some charts showing various bp to see whether they track. We should get the September SIA number [ww chip sales] soon. Semi equip investors are once again anticipating better bookings - just like a year and a half ago. Maybe they'll be right this time. PS: the MSFT decision is due after close today Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (6596)	11/1/2002 1:04:19 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95536

>> I'm not saying you have not been right these last few weeks but you may not be right too much longer. RtS, I would take no comfort in being right, if it was on a flip of a coin. There is no predictive value in guessing right a hundred times in a row. But I really want to explore the idea that stocks are going to respond to aggregate income, dollar strength, GDP, employment, and spending/savings. And conversely, the traditional measures of P/S or P/E or P/B will not be used during this time when sales and earnings are seen to be abnormally low, and bound to improve. The only support for skepticism about stock prices is the double dip. If you see that coming, whether because of saturation of demand for homes and cars. Or because of war, then the current data about employment/income is irrelevent. Personally, I believe that the current glut of production capacity means more material goods at lower cost. It is a problem that many countries would love to have. Anyway, I don't see that double dip at this time. But I agree that war will have unpredictable results. Sarmad