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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fred hayes who wrote (3484)	11/1/2002 2:35:06 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10345

The only thing to worry about is that if financial markets continue to weaken, all bets are off and the loss is 100% if the stock anticipates the dilution and goes below $1 (not my expectation) and the whole cycle becomes vicious. At some point it might lead to bankruptcy if the bondholders are going to get 90% of the company anyway. I have said I do not even view bankruptcy as an option but this is one way it would get there. At something like $0.50, the bondholders get 2 billion shares out of 2.35 B for 85%. At that point, it would be worth filing and continuing to liquidate assets during bankruptcy to be able to meet debt obligations as you exit bankruptcy. In that case, equity holders might even come out with something (very rare). To avoid the whole scene, it is imperative that ELN raise money now and not toward the end of next year. Also, they should begin buying in the open market or do a partial tender now to reduce the problem and allow the stock to be at higher prices as the deadline occurs (if it does - best is if the deadline is removed through quick retirement). If another asset sale does not occur before early Q1 next year, stock will get more fearful again. Sorry for the ramble. Just my 2 (useless) cents. Jon

To: fred hayes who wrote (3484)	11/1/2002 3:13:20 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

Fred: Yeah, I also owned Athena. But I never stick around. I dump the shares as soon as a deal is announced and recycle to another bio. OK..... well, I've been going through patent applications. It's difficult to determine which might be assigned to Drug Delivery, but I feel that the $$$$s being mentioned for that portion of ELN are low. I believe that it will bring north of $1.3 billion. Disclosure: I still only have my original modest positions. I've traded larger positions a couple of times, but they've been "hard and fast, no reversal of strategy allowed" trades. Rick