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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (6480)	11/1/2002 2:20:57 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 306849

I think the market is running on fumes right now because of elections so somebody is juicing the system. You can't have a crash before a major election. A lot of people (including myself) got squeezed out and are sick and tired of shorting. Those are the necessary conditions one needs for capitulation. It's so funny that I can say it as an "outsider" now, but in the heat of the moment, it's so hard to think rationally. Hmm, is consulting in my future? :-) My targets generally conform with those of published bears. I think 560 on the S&P500 is as good a place as any for the market to bottom during THIS recession (there'll be 1 or 2 more in this bear market). In the meantime, my boss put about $10 million in European fixed income securities about 18 months ago. He's making money on Euro appreciation and coupon. For those who don't have $10m in their back pockets to buy bonds, an International bond fund or gold is the second best thing.

To: GraceZ who wrote (6480)	11/1/2002 8:51:36 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 306849

With respect to RE - one scenario that nobody has taken into account would be that record low interest rates continue to fuel RE even of the economy deteriorates further. Reaper on the CFZ thread has predicted 2%+ interest for the 10 years treasuries. If this happens we could have 3%+ mortgages (if we do not get a credit crunch - i big if I admit) and RE would continue to run on fumes even with a miserable economy. I don't think it will happen but I don't think its impossible either.