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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SOROS who wrote (8717)	11/1/2002 4:10:28 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Pops, what is difference between $1 bill and $100 bill ?? nothing, just arrangement of the ink same cost to produce same weight a great quote: "The dollar is America's greatest success story, because each one costs less than a penny to produce and yet, is sold throughout the world for $1 apiece. What American export can match that?" -JIM GRANT, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, NYC Conference nice rant actually I believe there is plenty a Central Bank can do in reaction to outright deflation they can offer money at negative interest rates? if you borrow $10,000 the govt will pay you 2% interest it comes out of your payment to principal not a difficult concept for the math literates talk about sparking a spending spree that would ignite a capex revival !!! but I make light of a dire situation whereby most financial entities out there (govt, city, corporation, household) are suffering from excess debt already why expand debt? why expand hiring? why expanding capital equipmt spending? the Y2K Party is over, now comes the cleanup it should take several more years imho the public investment community is tragically misplacing hope and trust in the Federal Reserve in every past accident since 1990, the Fed was there to minimize the pain, make it go away, stimulate the economic world, restore spending and job creation but the consequence is that with so much dirt under the rug, with so many masked recessions, we have only prolonged the real pain of retraction within the economy we have delayed harsh recessions in 1997 and 2000, only to bring about a horrendous Kondratieff Supercycle recession, which he called WINTER we have attempted thru political naivete to repeal the recessionary business cycle, because this generation dislikes pain, avoids retrenchment, and believes that political forces can sidestep "bad things" bullshit bullshit bullshit where is the repair and restoration to balance sheets??? nowhere nowhere nowhere instead, we have nationwide simultaneous destruction and constipation of balance sheets let's face it, Y2K Event was the watershed event with 200-300% increases in IT spending, the phenomenon drained future demand in a huge way the result was a party of magnificent proportions stock valuations now are set in reverse momentum even with a reasonably healthy economy, IT spending would be way down for the simple reason that so many corporate IT depts are well set for years to come for Lord Sake, $100 billion decline in Capex from 2000 to 2001 God must have known that the turn of the millennium would cause this I was told in autumn 1999 by a couple sharp Staples auditors that IT spending budgets would reduce by 75% in 2001 why didnt I expect this !?!?!?!?! I AINT MISSING THE GOLD RUSH SURE AS SHOOTIN' THIS ONE IS GONNA BE HUGE, AND IT IS VERY PREDICTABLE UNLESS ONE WEARS POLITICAL GLASSES, WHICH DISTORT VISION / jim

To: SOROS who wrote (8717)	11/1/2002 6:06:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

What is holding the DJII up with all the bad news? From: Jim Sinclair Date: Friday, November 1, 2002 [spelling errors corrected by the jackass] Question: This rally seems to have no end to it. The market in equities eats all the bad news and keep chugging along. Is this a new bull market for general equities? Bloomberg TV seems to think so. All the people interviewed see a higher market and no new lows. Answer: What is happening now is positioning. Many of the traders are getting positioned for a Federal Reserve reduction in the key lending rate of 1/2 percent next week by buying equities and the equity futures. Today, the futures in equity indexes led the indexes up all day. The assumption is that the equities market will rally wildly on that news of a Fed cut in rates. Then in the spirit of the greater fool theory, those that buy today, Friday, will be able to sell next week at much higher prices. This is the thesis that has been holding the equities market ever since the event of the 200-pt DJII intra-day drop and then recovery on the news the consumers expectations were significantly lower. Well, there are few other points to consider. 1. The bull play seems a hair too easy. 2. A drop of the 1/2% by the Fed is a clear admission that the recovery has flopped. 3. The Fed may well do nothing in the face of the drop in the value of intermediate and long bonds. 4. The US dollar continues to act like it is being significantly liquidated at every positive opportunity in a manner that seems quite spirited. That is not the way the dollar should act, if we are on the eve of another leg in the equities rally. [can you say CIRCLE JERK?] 5. We have been doing nothing but reducing the interest rates and it has not resulted in the expected economic recovery. More reductions in the cost of money is not the medicine required to jump start this economy. A defibrillator attached to the Niagara Mohawk Power plant is a good idea. I tend to think that, assuming the Fed does act by cutting rates at least 1/2 point, it will provide the opportunity to sell the market for a drop that will take the DJII to a lower low than we have previously experienced. God help the equities market, if the Fed acts and the market does practically nothing. Of course if the Fed fails to act, the market will drop and the talking heads will promise action at next month's meeting if not sooner. Probable hope of an interest rate cut is stronger medicine than a cut itself. How perverse the mind of the market is. [the bolded sentence has been my point exactly lately] A great deal of the liquidity from the expansion of monetary aggregates that had entered the commodity market has exited to play the equities on the recent huge rally. Fed action will, in all probability, mark the point wherein the liquidity exits the equities and heads back into the commodity market. That is the play I am looking for -- not the highly touted buy 'em Friday and clean up next week play on financial TV. Actually, I still like buying Gold & Coffee on each reaction when TA warranted. [sell the news, babycakes]