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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3124)	11/1/2002 6:43:44 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 4691

Paul, Welcome into ANF. I am still holding it with round-trip that it did this summer. At ~$10 in 2000 it was an obvious buy. At ~$20 it is still a buy, but less obvious. At $30 it is a hold, so I probably will roundtrip again waiting for $40 or so. :-) I sold my last INTC today. I don't see how it can make more than ~15%ROE going forward and with that assumption expected return is dropping into ~7% annualized and the price is getting too rich for current situation. Intel is stuck in situation where it has to innovate like crazy just to stay in the same place. Otherwise, AMD + others would be there immediately. This was fine when PC market was growing fast, but may be a liability if growth does not return. Fight of INTC with AMD + TXN, ARMHY in new fields does not sound like a sure thing to prosper. My timing is probably totally wrong here, but since I don't see reentry point until ~$10, I don't quite see the rationale to hold. I may buy another more "value" tech stock instead. BTW, overall with recent runup my list of "buys" is getting empty, which makes me nervous. Maybe my ROE expectations are becoming too conservative - I don't see many companies earning 25-40% ROE going forward. I also don't see myself buying stocks for less than 15% expected annualized return. And as I said, this list is becoming empty. Just as disclaimer, I am fully invested anyway with most capital in SP500 + value funds. Good luck Jurgis

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3124)	11/1/2002 10:11:37 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

<<I'll start ANF today with a very small buy. On the one hand, it feels like I'm a little late to be buying. (The stock's had a 25% run up since lows of a couple weeks ago). OTOH, it didn't dawn on me until now the potential that ANF has with its Hollister stores.>> Bingo! If you haven't seen a Hollister store yet, find one. There are less than 100 so they're not easy to find, but this is the growth engine revving up behind the maturing Abercrombie concept. The store is really something unique. I kind of like the current price.