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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6605)	11/1/2002 7:02:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

On 10/9/02, just 17 trading days ago, the SOX bottomed at 214.06. Today it closed at 313.04, a gain of 46 percent. The performance of the individual stocks in the SOX are shown below. AMD, in top spot in the table is up 83 percent. MOT in the last spot in the table is up 13 percent. Also, note that in the short term, earnings estimates do not matter - the top 2 spots in the table are the only 2 stocks that have negative earnings predicted for next year. AMD, in the top spot, only has a 5 year growth rate estimated at 15 percent. 10/9/02 11/1/02 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG AMD 3.56 6.51 83 -1.10 15 TER* 7.22 12.65 75 -0.29 20 LSCC 4.34 7.60 75 0.32 24 25 0.97 NVLS* 20.17 33.06 64 0.43 77 23 3.42 MXIM 21.35 33.89 59 1.24 27 25 1.09 LSI 4.16 6.47 56 0.37 17 20 0.87 AMAT* 10.41 15.72 51 0.39 40 20 1.99 LLTC 19.84 29.26 47 0.89 33 25 1.32 XLNX 14.17 20.57 45 0.69 30 25 1.19 KLAC* 26.15 37.39 43 1.26 30 20 1.48 ALTR 8.82 12.42 41 0.32 39 25 1.55 MU 12.14 16.80 38 0.78 22 20 1.08 NSM 10.62 14.50 37 0.46 32 19 1.70 INTC 13.46 18.30 36 0.59 31 17 1.82 BRCM 10.21 13.01 27 0.17 77 35 2.19 TXN 13.23 16.79 27 0.30 56 20 2.80 MOT 8.30 9.42 13 0.39 24 12 2.01 TOTALS 208.15 304.36 46 7.21 42 SOX-X 214.06 313.04 46 COMPQX1114.11 1360.70 22 *In Semi-Equip Group

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6605)	11/2/2002 10:55:17 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Very interesting charts this week, Don. May I point out that if the SOX earnings rise from $0.50 this year to $7.21 next year that the growth rate will be equivalent to a rise of 1342%(see previous table from the post I'm responding to for expected earnings in dollars). The the current forward PE of 42 seems small in comparison. Could this be fueling the semi rally? Maybe the SOX should go up another 1300% during this next year (just) to catch up with the earnings growth rate!!! WOW. Hang on to your hats, folks.<vbg>