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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fred hayes who wrote (3491)	11/5/2002 1:24:05 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Respond to of 10345

Hi Fred, I have not been following ELN lately and am not familiar with the SEC issues. I am sorry since I would have liked to help - if I could. ij

To: fred hayes who wrote (3491)	12/23/2002 11:04:49 PM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

Fred, Just looking over the post that this is a response to... (it's been a while <g>.) So, EPIL II & III assets are low by ~$40MM and Diagnostics value was high. I think European sales might be missing from estimate entirely?... ~$100MM in sales worth ~$500MM maybe? Non-core drugs in annual report not broken out at first glance - $65.4MM in 2001 US sales (Actiq included?...) so worth ~$300MM minus $50MM for Actiq? Sonata is selling at $100MM/yr pace... $500MM value? With indiplon and Estorra on the way maybe $250MM (what you had) might be more accurate after all. With Frova still in ramp up phase of launch and with what appears to be current $50MM annual sales pace, I think that $200MM is too conservative. I think we may see $100MM annual sales pace within a couple of quarters - if so then we need to double your guess. Skelaxin and Zanaflex estimates look fine. Ziconitide trials are taking waaay too long. Antegren valuation looks high without seeing PIII data - but if data is good then it is too low. Still get a little ticked off when I really read the reports - EPILs, Autoimmune and Pharma Marketing really get me hot under the collar. H