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To: orkrious who wrote (201809)	11/3/2002 10:31:53 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 436258

I See you solved the problem. The point is that those "conspirationists" are not telling you that gold supply over the last ten years has actually increased quite dramatically (from memory at more than 20 %), gold demand is stying quite even around 4000 tonnes or so, and the gap between the supply and demand is fully satisfied by gold recycling ( a solid 1000 tonnes per year or there about) and sales from CB's at an average annual clip of 500 Tonnes per year.). If gold stays around $300/ounce for any length of time (and I expect at least few years of that, as long as the dollar is in a secular down trend, which I think it will be), supply is actually going to grow even more rapidly that it has in the last 10 years, making that whole "scary" scenario of a gold explosion (imminent, next month according to that author, but it has been "next month for him for the last ten years <g>) quite doubtful. The best the bulls can expect, IMTO, is a spike to the $400 range on a major dollar decline (also spike like), trapping a bunch of newbies just as they were caught in the early 80' silver and gold runs. Short term, the gold bugs should worry that the traditional bump in 4th quarter sales of Jewelry, by far the major element in gold demand, will be negatively impacted by the slow Christmas sales here and in Europe, will not materialize, temporarily shifting the gold demand equation to oversupply. Zeev