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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (201837)	11/3/2002 12:19:03 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

But even China will not provide a 50% rise in demand to 6000 tonnes, they are already the largest single "demand" country (sheer population) and strangely enough, in the first half of 2002 their retail demand has declined relative to 2001 (about 15% decline).The trend in China has bee down from 374 Tonnes in the peak demand year in 1997 to only 205 tonnes in 2001, and so far 2002 is coming in lower than 2002. These are the real numbers, not that wishful thinking " of 6000 tonnes demand in 2003. This "gold bug" writer sounds more and more like the "perpetual productivity" increases guru of the late 1999/early 2000 bubble mania analysts. In my opinion, the main driver in gold pricing will be the extent of the US balance of payment deficit and its impact on the dollar, a secular slow and gradual erosion of the dollar will cause an equivalent slow and gradual increase in the price of gold. Zeev