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To: John Madarasz who wrote (58455)	11/3/2002 9:07:55 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

John, on the seasonality factor For those that wish to go long based on the seasonality factor, perhaps the way to do it is to throw out the November-April timeframe and instead to use a MACD based system for trading the "season" as Sy Harding mentions. Sy is a little loose on defining the length of this period (giving his MACD-based season a length of over a year in 1998-9 and only a few months at the end of 2000): "It first refined the optimum average seasonal pattern as being from the next to last trading day of October, through the 4th trading day of May. Those dates are marked by the vertical dotted lines in the chart shown above. However obviously the market does not begin its favorable season rally exactly on November 1 each year. Nor does it begin its unfavorable season correction exactly on May 1 each year. So, we then applied a short term momentum reversal indicator to better pinpoint the entries and exits as the calendar dates approach. An example of how it works at the entry: If the momentum reversal indicator tells us a rally has begun three or four weeks prior to the calendar date, we will simply enter then rather than waiting for the calendar date. But if the momentum reversal indicator remains on a sell signal as the calendar entry date arrives, we simply wait until the correction ends before entering. That makes a huge difference. It allows the favorable season or the unfavorable season to vary from 4 to 8 months, depending on what the market itself is doing at the time, rather than being locked into the calendar date entry of the basic "Sell in May and Go-Away, six-month seasonal strategy. The results speak for themselves in the above chart and table." streetsmartreport.com

To: John Madarasz who wrote (58455)	11/3/2002 11:06:13 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Another thought on seasonality. History shows Sept-Oct as the two weakest months, when mutual funds have to lock in sales for capital losses. The really sharp bounce in the smallcaps has historically been January, after individual tax loss selling is done. I submit that there are fewer dollars driven by individual investors these days - everyone invests by proxy (through funds). That, coupled with increasing awareness of "favorable seasonality" should act to shift the most favorable month earlier, out of January and toward November. If the seasonals are shifting earlier and earlier, and given the rally that has already taken place, I think seasonals aren't going to be much help to the bulls. BC