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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6651)	11/3/2002 1:51:22 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 95520

The major difference between 1998 and today is that then, we were still in a secular bull market, now we are in a secular bear market, I expect the bottom in July to prove to be the beginning of a cyclical Bull move here, but it may not last beyond August of next year (I'll have to see how we evolve here before I have a better "handle"). Second difference is relative valuations, in secular bull moves, the metrics of valuations keep rising in each subsequent cyclical bull move, in secular bear markets, the metrics of valuations keep going down with each cyclical bear move within the secular trend. We are still just facing the first, maybe the second cyclical bull of what might be three to five secular bull moves within a secular bear trend. All, just my opinion, of course, so Scott, does not complain about the excess "assertiveness" of this post. It really follows the general model I have suggested more than two and a half years ago. So far it is working, so if it ain't broke, don't fix it. (g). I am sure that one can point, as Alistair has, that we are starting this moves from levels that are already discounting a major recovery if not more. One could question that. In 1998 the decline was due to a minor financial dislocation (precipitated by the Russian crisis), right now, the problems are more endemic. Zeev