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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (6540)	11/3/2002 3:09:35 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Were you bullish back in April 2000?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (6540)	11/3/2002 8:04:59 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

while one could use any large group as a contrary indicator, something to keep in mind re SI is that there is a certain survivorship bias to bears here. that is, many of the permabulls had their portfolios totally wiped out, so they have less interest in posting. whereas bears have prospered, and thus have presumably maintained an interest in financial matters. and on an ideological level, bears have had their convictions borne out by the market, while bulls have been refuted. thus certain once-popular threads, like the G&K thread, are now but shadows compared to their glory days. The same thing happened in 98... anybody remember the "Dell Bear thread?" it was popular once, also there was a fleckenstein thread and a whole host of all-bear threads that disappeared in 99/00. Reverse of today, the bulls used to taunt the non-moderated bear threads where the LT participants had been wiped out (I know this to be true in at least 2 cases).. thats why Luc started the moderated CFZ thread. Maybe some bears were able to make back most of their money after the 99/00 upward melt, but given the economics of shorting it would have been tough. Lizzie