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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (5096)	11/3/2002 5:05:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 10157

Comments on this Ewave analysis? clearstation.etrade.com

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (5096)	11/3/2002 10:44:30 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 10157

Some choice quotes from the latest Hussman http://hsgfx:reciprocal@www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htm As the always astute Kate Welling writes in the latest issue of Welling@Weeden, "The monster bull was, quite plainly in retrospect, a secular (once in a lifetime, or several lifetimes) phenom. And while there's no law I know of that says the correction in which we're now mired must last as long, must relentlessly grind every portfolio to dust or must be as utterly unbearable as the joyride was glorious, all of financial history says a real correction there must be. Of two things I am certain: There are still more shoes to drop, and when the broad market finally does trace out the bottom of this secular bear, very few will even notice. Or care. That's just the nature of the beast. Sorry, Maria." .... Specifically, when we restrict the analysis to periods during the favorable November-April span when trend uniformity was also favorable, the annualized return for the S&P 500 averages 27.8%. But during November-April periods when trend uniformity was unfavorable, the average annualized return whittles down to just 0.2%. If we further restrict those seasonally favorable periods to points when both valuations and trend uniformity were unfavorable (as they are now), the S&P 500 has averaged an annualized loss of -6.6%. ......

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (5096)	11/4/2002 1:49:53 AM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 10157

FWIW, Richard Bernstein over at ML (who has been one of the few straight shooters throughout this debacle) writes in his US Strategy update for Nov.4 that he would consider a Fed easing BEARISH. Points out that investors have not been "fighting the Fed" at all through this easing cycle, that their sell-side indicator (their most reliable market timing indicator, based on Wall Street investment advisor's recommended asset allocations) remains on a sell (well into the "extreme bullishness" zone). Also notes that the "Greenspan Put" appears to remain alive and well, and believes that it will ultimately be discredited. Notes 80% correlation btwn S&P 500 earnings growth and Fed Funds rate. Says current forecasts seem to suggest investors will see both strong earnings growth and Fed easing despite a history which says either/or. Says an easing would be an admission by the Fed that the economy is not making the transition from the early to mid-cycle phase and express concern on the part of the Fed. Says these considerations probably shouldn't even be up for discussion 22 months into an easing cycle. Maintains 12 mo target for S&P of 860. Says speculative fervor has not been removed from market and believes investors should be selling this rally into strength. Take it FWIW. This suggests to me that the market will SELL an easing and BUY a stand-pat.