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To: Mike M2 who wrote (201909)	11/3/2002 6:22:05 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I did not say I expected a raise either, I just suggested (and have since just before the last fed meeting), apparently as Gross did, that raising rates here might not be such a bad tactical move, but of course, this is the "stupidest" idea ever suggested on this thread. How can you take that crude and banal character? As for when he should have fought the bubble, I think his hands were tied with the Y2K fear and he could not start raising rates until that fear proved to be unfounded. In hindsight, a major and tragic mistake. The best time would have been in 1997, but then he had the Asian malaise, and then he could not move in 1998 because of the Russian collapse and LTCM. What I fear is that he stays here at these rates too long and as early as late next year we get a relapse of this mild economic recovery with strapped consumers going on strike and particularly problematic Asia and Europe causing economic slowdown which lasts a little more than 3 quarters. With rates under 2%, anything he does than, will be ineffectual. If for no other reason than replenish his ammunition, he should raise rates (g), particularly that a minimal rise will have barely any impact. Zeev

To: Mike M2 who wrote (201909)	11/3/2002 6:46:49 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

raising rates (or never lowering them as much as we did in the first place) IS the correct move. but its not a move that will cause stocks to rally and the economy to strengthen.... it will, however, get the damage overwith without dragging it out and creating even more problems down the line (as Japan has done)... that is what gross was referring to. besides, he's a bond guy, he wants that sort of tough love to be handed out. it's very good for his bonds -g- air hed wasn't suggesting that.. he thnks a hike will cause a rally and solve all our problems because it will change psychology suddenly in the market. ie- the market, like a bunch of retards, will suddenly believe that everything must actually be OK cause the brainiacs down at the fed are rasing... and the consumer will shrug his shoulders too and say "gee, the fed must think the economy is strengthening.. i'll go spend that money i don't have then cause the fed, well, they "know stuff" LOL, its the most ridiculous thing i have ever heard