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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (6567)	11/4/2002 9:54:01 AM
From: reaper	Respond to of 306849

'sustained decline' would be a 5-10% decline in nationwide prices that stuck (and thus erodes and changes people's expectations for permanent increase in prices). certain insanely over-valued markets (like my home town, and SoCal) will go down more. as far as hi-end houses, i really don't care what they do. the credit cycle rots from the periphery in, so what really matters is what happens to the price of a two-family in Jamiaca Plain, not what happens to the $million condos in my neighborhood (though if those condos just went back to what i paid 3 1/2 years ago, people would be looking at a 50% peak-to-trough loss). the key IMO is to keep an eye on the MARGINAL credit, 'cause that's where changes occur (at the margin). Cheers