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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (21269)	11/4/2002 12:07:29 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

housing (#1) and cars (#2) lead into recessions the other major sector is IT (#3): computers, PC, storage, networking in the first recession in 2001, we saw sector#3 at work now we are seeing sector#2 at work soon we will see sector#3 at work that is when the DoubleDip recession occurs next year mainstream and conservative journals are getting the story right slowly Business Week just had a cover article about the profit crunch, which will spill into real estate via layoffs the main message I took from the Mandel article was that layoffs are coming, and LOTS OF THEM, many more than the illiterates expect during this cleansing K-Winter, I expect US car mfrs to defend vigorously several attempts by the recession to bring death to perhaps each of GM, Ford, Chrysler we might very well witness our first socialized govtal action in the car sector as their financial operations are totally assumed, for the greater good it will be for preservation of jobs too big to fail, dont wanna surrender to Asia car mfrs actually, the car sector has a huge trickle down economy with car parts, tires, batteries, steel, electronics, plastics, and financing let's never forget financing, which now has corrupted the car sector financing corrupted IT (#3) with telecom and dotboms with IPO's, stock options, shading accounting it is thoroughly and completely corrupting housing (#2) with mindless bond market diversion into MortBackeds and shoddy lending practices it is also draining future demand, if not corrupting cars (#3) with zero financing US Finance is our national ACHILLES HEEL, and will kick us backward in a big painful way, into recession I expect endless recession or stagflation they are really the same thing in my mind not surprising though for this finance blowoff top our nation is debt addicted it makes sense that we become inventive in finance until it is corrupted to the core what I find so irresponsible and analytically void is the near vacant discussion of the Strong Dollar Policy which undermines all US mfg if the dollar were more at parity with Euro, and had been for years, then we actually could have seen more exports to Europe of our best cars but the dollar high valuation prevented this our entire US Mfg Base has largely been gutted with little protest the movement silenced labor unions, rendering them impotent / jim