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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (202334)	11/5/2002 8:43:30 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

heh heh heh...welcome back!

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (202334)	11/5/2002 9:05:54 AM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

oh boy... look what the cat dragged in -bg-

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (202334)	11/5/2002 6:40:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Was the Test successful? WTF are you doing with CSCO tomorrow (if anything). Enquiring minds want to know now, and not after the fact that you had 500 options all up 500%. CSCO was above pain in Feb and we tanked, every other earnings CSCO was well below pain and single handedly reversed the entire market trend. Can it happen again? CSCO reversing the market trend? IMO CSCO can only trump max pain if they have some sort of perceived blowout. This thing is already delta hedged long so there will be no extra delta hedging kick this time like we saw in May IMO. If they disappoint we will see those hedges unwound and CSCO could drop 1.50 very quickly, then drift about for another week and lose the other $1. CSCO could be a non-event but with max pain at 10 it can get ugly quick if they warn or even disappoint. CSCO pain is actually 10. I was thinking it was 12.5. CSCO has been 2.5 points above max pain only twice this year. Jan_feb pre earnings, and May after the overshoot ramp job. Now what to do with those factoids if anything? Jan 10 PUTs are .60 which is not bad. Dec 15 Calls are .45 which is also not bad. If it does a straight tank can we overcome .45 assuming one did a strangle of sorts (but giving more time to the puts). Nov is very risky as we need a huge move immediately and the bid ask spread is immense. If it shoots up or down $2 that will more than cover it, but possibly not if you do a strangle. DEC 10 puts are .40 so one could do those with Dec 15 calls at .45. If we got a $2 move either way I am sure it would be profitable. If it does not move much then you could get screwed on both as they will drop the volatility. If one wanted to play pain cheaply, then loading up on the Dec 10's puts would do it. How are you playing this Pig. M