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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6712)	11/5/2002 9:43:05 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95610

Once again the market greets ,what would otherwise be tank city news,with an anemic drop. This normally would take everything down to the floor and yet it seems to be bouyant. Seems like an awful lot of anticipation buying into this sector. It would be scary to be holding a big short position here - it looks hard to get out?? Bob

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6712)	11/5/2002 10:02:00 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95610

Sarmad, I think that AMAT's layoffs are signalling that IC sales growth will not soon recover. Of course there will be savings but $176,000 per person per year seems high. On the other hand I think that projected IC sales for 2004 are too high. Also don't forget the costs of layoffs and the costs of hiring and retraining when demand comes back. I'm sure that AMAT feels that an increase in demand if far enough in the future to absorb these costs. I also agree that the market is reacting in a stupid fashion. On any rational basis AMAT should be trading for no more than $10 share.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6712)	11/5/2002 1:12:31 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95610

Re: The part we are yet to see is increase in demand. But I have zero doubt that chip use will increase very significantly and soon. Even my toaster has chips in it now. Sarmad, articles like this confirm my belief that we will not soon see a large pickup in IC demand. Chips in toasters and refrigerators won't help much. informationweek.com (Thanks to Les Horowitz for finding this article.) The economy still suffers from overcapacity issues that must be resolved before capital spending shows significant growth.