To: calgal who wrote (19674 ) 11/5/2002 11:31:04 AM From: calgal Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27666 11/04/2002 - Updated 08:31 PM ET ELECTION DAY 2002 URL:http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-04-what-gns_x.htm What to watch for on Election Night By Chuck Raasch, Gannett News Service WASHINGTON — A season of uncertainty ends Tuesday with the votes of millions of Americans. As polls close through the time zones, a few contests are leading indicators of whether the Republicans or Democrats have advantages in Congress and in state capitals. Here's a primer of what to watch for based on poll closings beginning with Indiana and Kentucky, and ending with Alaska: 6 p.m. ET: Two races for the House of Representatives should give an early hint as to whether the Republicans hold on or the Democrats regain control they lost in 1994. In Indiana's 2nd District that includes South Bend, Democrat Jill Long Thompson and Republican Chris Chocola are locked in one of the handful of House tossups. In Kentucky's 3rd District that includes Louisville, Republican Anne Northup, an incumbent, appears to have a slight advantage over Democratic challenger Jack Conway. If Conway is winning, it could be a long night for the GOP. 7 p.m. ET: This is the hour when the Republicans first find out if they take back the Senate. Republicans hope Rep. Saxby Chambliss can upset Democratic Sen. Max Cleland in Georgia. A half dozen extremely close Senate races will follow in later hours. This hour will also give early hints on governor's races, with South Carolina and Vermont closing their polls. They are among the closest in the nation. About half of the 36 governor's races around the country are close. 7:30 p.m. ET: Watch the results of a race between Rep. Shelly Moore Capito, R-W.Va., and Democrat Jim Humphreys, for further indication of who holds control of the House when the dust clears on Wednesday. 8 p.m. ET: All eyes will initially be on Florida after its Panhandle polls close. Will we see more voting controversies reminiscent of 2000? Is incumbent Gov. Jeb Bush in trouble against surprise Democratic challenger Bill McBride? Close governor's races in Massachusetts, Alabama, New Hampshire, Kansas and Maryland will give a clearer picture of whether Republicans hold onto the majority of governorships. The GOP now has 27 governor's chairs. This hour will also determine whether women, who are running for governor in nine states, do well in 2002. Democratic women are on the ticket in Massachusetts, Kansas and Maryland, and they all start reporting this hour. The fight for the Senate gets clearer with New Hampshire, New Jersey and Missouri reporting in. In Texas, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, a Democrat, is trying to become the first black person elected to the Senate from that state. He faces GOP Attorney General John Cornyn. And look for a House trend: One of four incumbent versus incumbent races, set up by redistricting after the 2000 Census, pits Democrat Tim Holden against Republican George Gekas in Pennsylvania's 17th District, which includes Harrisburg. A tossup in northern Maine between Republican Kevin Raye and State Senate Leader Mike Michaud in the 2nd District is also worth watching to see if Republicans hold their current 223-208 margin (three seats are vacant and one is held by an independent who votes with the Democrats). 8:30 p.m. ET: In Arkansas, Democrat Attorney General Mark Pryor's challenge of incumbent Sen. Tim Hutchinson may be Republicans' biggest Senate worry. 9 p.m. ET: This is the hour that will tell whether it will be a relatively early night for political junkies or one that stretches into the wee hours, a la 2000. Tossup Senate races in Colorado, South Dakota and Minnesota will report their results, and if they are too close to call, the outcome of the Senate may not be known until the next day — or even later. Louisiana, where Republicans are trying to force incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu into a December runoff, also ends its voting at this hour. In Minnesota, this will be when we'll begin to know whether former Vice President Walter Mondale or Republican Norm Coleman will be going to the Senate. Close House races in Colorado's new 7th District in the Denver suburbs, Minnesota's 2nd District in the Twin Cities' suburbs and South Dakota's at-large district will be reported. If the GOP wins at least two of the three, Republicans may be on their way to expanding their narrow House majority. If Democrats are to gain control of the House, they almost certainly have to win all three. Tight governor's races in Wisconsin, Wyoming and Rhode Island also start reporting returns. 10 p.m. ET: Call this Iowa Hour. It has three close House races: The 1st District in the Eastern part of the state has Democrat Ann Hutchinson against Republican incumbent Jim Nussle. The 2nd District in the state's southeastern corner pits GOP Rep. Jim Leach vs. Democrat Julie Thomas. The 3rd District, including Des Moines, has Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell against Republican Stan Thompson. If Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is losing to Republican challenger Doug Gross, it may put an exclamation on a long night for Democrats. If the Democratic incumbent is winning, it could be an exclamation point for his party. 11 p.m. ET: Two governor's races are of interest in California and Hawaii. Democrat Gov. Gray Davis is trying to survive a nasty race with Republican Bill Simon. Linda Lingle is trying to become Hawaii's first Republican governor against Democrat Mazie Hirono. Midnight-1 a.m. ET: Alaska ends it with a surprisingly close governor's race between Democratic Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer and Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska.