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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (6588)	11/5/2002 3:27:05 PM
From: onewaypockets	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

re:condos...when I hear that condo sales are doing well (along with other indicators)it makes me feel that the top of the market is happening. Most years you cannot give a condo away, until the mania strips inventory away to almost nothing and the lemmings bite at anything with a front door. I can remember the previous peak of 1989 like it was yesterday, along with all the other indicators I see now such as giddy realtors, smug owners, easy refi money, 2% a month appreciation gossip, multiple offers, slick realtor ads in Home and Lands magazine, and so on. Someone I respect recently said..."every asset class has its day, real estate is in the 8th, 9th, or maybe the 10 inning." Along the same lines... "The Parade People will look back and put their finger on one spot and exclaim that it all happened THERE, but it doesn't really work like that. We've had a parade of cascading tops. During the 98-99 silliness, if you looked at random stock charts, you could the parade in motion, as stocks one after another topped out, and started heading down. Granted, they weren't companies anyone cared about, but they topped out and started declining all the same. And then it moved from the companies no one cared about to some of the companies that people did care about. But the parade kept marching. Soon, the whole NASDAQ was declining. But the parade hadn't reached the S&P500 and the Dow quite yet. Now it has most definitely. I expect the parade to march through real estate and the credit markets at some point in the future. In those sectors, you can hear the music in the air as the parade draws closer. That's when things get real interesting, because there's a real good chance people won't have the money to pay for things like food and housing after those sectors go into decline. At some point the parade will reach its end, everyone will spend some time licking their wounds, and eventually the world will get back up and start moving again. Eventually. I think. OCICBW."