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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (13703)	11/5/2002 5:06:01 PM
From: h8_2_b_l8	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

The problem with CSCO earning this year.....every time they have come at the end of a down trend. It has changed the trend every time. Every CSCO earnings over the last 4Q has given us the tops that coincided with the retrace within 21 trading days. Percentage gains on the COMPQ 11/5/01 1 day = 2.3% 3 days = 1.9% 5 days = 2.6% 10 days = 7.9% 21 days = 14.1% High/Low over 21 days = 14.7%/-0.8% 2/6/02 1 day = -1.7% 3 days = 1.9% 5 days = 2.6% 10 days = -5.3% 21 days = 6.5% High/Low over 21 days = 7.4%/-6.4% 5/7/02 1 day = 7.8% 3 days = 1.7% 5 days = 9.3% 10 days = 5.8% 21 days = -1.2% High/Low over 21 days = 11.8%/-1.6% 8/6/02 1 day = 1.7% 3 days = 3.7% 5 days = 0.8% 10 days = 11.9% 21 days = 2.9% High/Low over 21 days = 13.3%/-1.3%

To: ajtj99 who wrote (13703)	11/5/2002 5:10:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

The difference between CSCO now and every other month but FEb is that CSCO is above max pain now. In every other month but FEB CSCO was below max pain, sometimes substantially. CSCO has rallied into earnings this time instead of selling off. If they say something good we could take off. But this market will not take much to selloff huge IMO. MSFT CSCO INTC QQQ all hugely above max pain (especially INTC and QQQ) One possibility is a strong selloff on "bad" FOMC news and then a ramp on CSCO that gets sold until expiry. Thre is no question that there is much delta hedging long here. That will be unwound (and likely more shorted) to get us to pain on the first sign of bad news. M