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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (11320)	11/5/2002 6:43:01 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Don has tomorrow as a 21 day cycle high, but I've seen others have the 7/8 as a high. did you see this? Chat Notes : 11/03 9:00 PM Daily Signals : CLASS 1 SELL signals may occur within 2-3 days, depending on how the market fluctuates. Weekly Signals : NAZ, NDX : CLASS 1 SELL. More upside this week, and the weekly signals will all line up as CLASS 1 SELL signals. The market may go higher still, as this week is the window to establish a short position for the weekly SELL signals. Donald is still short and may add on if weekly and daily CLASS 1 SELL signals occur. He will use the next market decline to exit his short position. Donald is expecting the next short term pullback to create a higher low. For the mid term (up to 30+ days) the market may remain in an up-trend. The USD is giving technical hints that it may be breaking down. Donald thinks it may be very negative for the market if it breaks 103. The market internals have not improved with this rally, which could limit the upside. A 21 day Fibonacci cycle high is due to arrive Wednesday. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by Donaldsew on Tuesday, November 05, 2002 - 9:27 am: At MONDAY's intraday highs, got following intraday signals: DOW - CLASS 2 SELL NAZ/NDX/SOX - BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL Watch possible EVENING STAR/ABANDONED BABY setups this morning - whether they fulfill or not, just have to wait

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (11320)	11/5/2002 6:45:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 57110

Repeat of part of the CSCO post with a possible option play if I can figure it out. CSCO was above pain in Feb and we tanked, every other earnings CSCO was well below pain and single handedly reversed the entire market trend. Can it happen again? CSCO reversing the market trend? IMO CSCO can only trump max pain if they have some sort of perceived blowout. This thing is already delta hedged long so there will be no extra delta hedging kick this time like we saw in May IMO. If they disappoint we will see those hedges unwound and CSCO could drop 1.50 very quickly, then drift about for another week and lose the other $1. CSCO could be a non-event but with max pain at 10 it can get ugly quick if they warn or even disappoint. CSCO pain is actually 10. I was thinking it was 12.5. CSCO has been 2.5 points above max pain only twice this year. Jan_feb pre earnings, and May after the overshoot ramp job. Now what to do with those factoids if anything? Jan 10 PUTs are .60 which is not bad. Dec 15 Calls are .45 which is also not bad. If it does a straight tank can we overcome .45 assuming one did a strangle of sorts (but giving more time to the puts). Nov is very risky as we need a huge move immediately and the bid ask spread is immense. If it shoots up or down $2 that will more than cover it, but possibly not if you do a strangle. DEC 10 puts are .40 so one could do those with Dec 15 calls at .45. If we got a $2 move either way I am sure it would be profitable. If it does not move much then you could get screwed on both as they will drop the volatility. If one wanted to play pain cheaply, then loading up on the Dec 10's puts would do it. M