Voters Make Decisions; VNS Opts out of Exit Polls
URL:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9059-2002Nov5.html
By Terry M. Neal
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Tuesday, November 5, 2002; 7:03 PM
Voters around the country went to the polls today amid concerns of terrorism, a shaky economy and the threat of war with Iraq to decide the outcome all 435 House seats, 34 Senate seats and 36 governors' offices.
This year's midterm election was more unpredictable than any in recent history, with no single galvanizing theme expected to drive voters, as both parties battled for control of Congress and statehouses from Alaska to Florida. Covering the races and interpreting the results also became more of a challenge today as Voter News Service, a consortium of large media outlets, abandoned its plans to conduct exit interviews, depriving the media of the information it uses to make early calls on races.
VNS became a lightning rod after the 2000 presidential election when the networks used data to make inaccurate calls on the decisive Florida vote. VNS rebuilt its system since 2000 but was never able to work out some of the bugs that would have allowed it to give accurate information about what issues people cared about and how certain groups voted.
For all practical purposes, this means the media will have to rely on actual votes, rather than exit polls. The end result may be that it will take awhile to determine outcomes.
Meanwhile, much of the focus of late has been on the Senate, where Democrats hold a narrow, one-seat majority over Republicans. Fewer than a third of the Senate races were considered competitive, and both parties threw resources at those races in recent months, with Democrats hoping to expand their lead and Republicans seeking to regain the majority they lost when Vermont Sen. James M. Jeffords dropped out of the GOP to declare himself an independent last year.
The Senate contests have been marked by two unusual events. First, Democratic Sen. Robert G. Torricelli dropped out of the New Jersey Senate race as his poll numbers dropped amid an ethics scandal. He was replaced on the ballot by former senator and arch-rival Frank Lautenberg. Then last month, Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone was killed in an airplane crash, forcing Democrats to scramble to replace him on the ballot in the waning days of the campaign. Democrats did in Minnesota as they had done in New Jersey, reaching back to an old party stalwart, in this case, former vice president Walter Mondale.
But while Lautenberg appears to have gained a clear advantage in his race against Doug Forrester, Mondale was in a toss-up contest with Republican opponent Norm Coleman, the former mayor of St. Paul. At least four other Senate seats currently held by Democrats are considered toss-up races: South Dakota, Missouri, Georgia and Louisiana, where Sen. Mary Landrieu will need to win 50 percent to avoid a Dec. 7 runoff.
Similarly, Republicans are defending five seats in races that are too close to call: Arkansas, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Texas.
Astonishingly, six of the closest 10 Senate races feature incumbents, four Democrats (in South Dakota, Missouri, Georgia and Louisiana) and two Republicans (in Arkansas and Colorado).
Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson battled Rep. John Thune in South Dakota; and Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan ran against former Rep. Jim Talent in a bid for the four years remaining on her late husband's term in Missouri. In Georgia, Sen. Max Cleland was attempting to hold off a late-surging opponent, Rep. Saxby Chambliss.
Embattled GOP incumbents included Sen. Tim Hutchinson, up against Mark Pryor in Arkansas; and Wayne Allard in a Colorado rematch with Tom Strickland. In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Smith lost in the primary to Rep. John E. Sununu, who is now facing Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in a race that's too close to call
On the House side, Republicans were hoping to defy history and expand their narrow six seat majority. Only twice since 1934 has a president's party picked up seats in a mid-term election, and Republicans haven't done it since 1902. But given that President Bush is more popular today than he was when he was elected two years ago, few political observers are predicting that the GOP would lose anywhere near the average 14 House seats that a president's party typically loses in first-term, mid-term elections. Democrats were cautiously predicting that they would pick up a few seats, but they have been careful not to predict the return of a Democratic majority, which the party lost in 1994's so-called Republican Revolution.
Only about one in 10 House races are considered competitive this year, in part because both parties went out of their way to create as many safe districts as they could in the redistricting process that followed the last Census. As a result, there were 74 House members -- and two candidates seeking first terms -- without major party opposition. Hundreds more had only token rivals. But on the flip side, there are four races in which Republican and Democratic incumbents are being forced to face each other.
Democrats were predicting gains in statehouses this year, where they are seeking to regain the majority they lost to Republicans in 1994. With 36 seats up, 23 are currently held by Republicans, and only 11 by Democrats, with 2 independents holding the others.
Democratic governors went into 1994 with 29 states to Republicans' 20; the elections reversed that, with Republicans in 30 governor's offices and Democrats in 19. Last year, Democratic governors won in New Jersey and Virginia, leaving Republicans holding 27 seats and Democrats holding 21, with two independent governors. The party with a majority of governors holds a prominent platform for presidential politics and domestic policies, like the GOP's successful push for welfare reform in the 1990s. In presidential campaigns, governors can mobilize fundraising efforts in their states, capture significant media coverage and help turn out voters.
Much of the media's attention this year has focused on the Florida race, where Gov. Jeb Bush appears to have pulled away from Democratic challenger Bill McBride in recent weeks. But there are other close races featuring prominent political names, most notably in Maryland, where Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is in a close race with Republican challenger Rep. Robert Ehrlich.
Some political analysts were also predicting a Democratic resurgence in the industrial midwest and east, with Democratic candidates favored or in close races in Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But Democrats could also lose ground in the South, where incumbent governors are in trouble in Alabama and South Carolina.
With so much at stake and with memories of the 2000 Florida debacle still fresh, both parties have appeared to be on edge in recent days, with Democrats accusing Republicans of trying to keeping voters from the polls and Republicans accusing Democrats of concocting stories to exploit the issue for political gain.
On Monday night, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sent an e-mail out to reporters headlined, "GOP Tactics To Limit Turn-Out Exposed." The e-mail alleged that Republicans were planning to place police officers and attorneys at polling places to intimidate voters in some close House races.
In a midday statement, Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot accused Democrats of peddling "wild and wacky allegations of misconduct. Without a record of accomplishment or leadership, without ideas or vision, without truth or accuracy, Democrats have embraced a desperate Election Day doomsday strategy. They have apparently come to believe that there is nothing left to be done other than to rely upon the politics of fear, fabrication and falsehood."
RNC communications director Mindy Tucker monitored reports about balloting problems and issued her own preemptive missive to reporters this afternoon, acknowledging that at one polling station a machine was casting votes for Gov. Jeb Bush that were really meant for Democratic candidate Bill McBride.
"To our knowledge it was an isolated incident in one precinct and the machine was reprogrammed and the problem was solved," Tucker wrote. "There were three or four other instances where scanners were not working properly. Those problems were also taken care of and the integrity of those ballots were not jeopardized.
More than 400 Justice Department lawyers and federal observers were dispatched to monitor balloting around the country-the largest such effort since the civil rights era.
The Associated Press Contributed to this story.
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