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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15756)	11/7/2002 4:20:33 AM
From: Mark Brophy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78666

Does anyone have an opinion on what the appropriate P/E to pay for a stable mature company in a low interest rate environment? Jeremy Siegel in his book, "Stocks for the Long Run" suggests that we should pay in the low 20's, even though bonds competing for our investing dollars yielding 3% suggests a 33.3 P/E. How can I find out the average P/E of the S&P 500? When is the right time to sell into this rally?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15756)	11/14/2002 5:00:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78666

I bought SAH to add to my small position in the multi-franchise car dealership business. No evidence (yet) that earnings won't be good next year. OTOH, no evidence either that the p/e will get better. I started up again a very small position in insurance co. NWLIA. Older thread readers might remember it being discussed here. Big negative might be that it's family run and controlled. I swapped some ALD for some ACAS because ACAS looks a bit more undervalued to me at this point. You either go for the "business development company" concept and management promulgations regarding these BDC's, or you don't. I do, and so I own several. OTOH, as discussed here before, the shorts have substantial positions and they are very convinced and persistent about it. Sold down my position in HI. The buyout today by HSBC popped the stock, but relative to where I made most of my HI purchases, it's a takeunder as far as I'm concerned. (ouch). finance.yahoo.com Paul Senior

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15756)	3/5/2003 2:29:27 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78666

I'll up my UAG position as stock hits new lows. Auto dealerships don't ever get any respect! (Maybe they don't deserve any -g-) Low p/e stock (assuming earnings are anywhere near what the company is saying they are expecting). High debt though. Reason for buying: bet on Roger Penske who seems (to me) to be an astute businessman. Can get stock cheaper than what he/other insiders paid: biz.yahoo.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15756)	4/1/2004 5:33:20 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78666

Car/truck dealerships, the retail stocks: Still holding on to my positions. Ken Heebner of CGM Focus looks like he's exited his several positions in this sector. Given his good record, that is not a good sign for the companies' outlook. (aside: CGM Focus is a fund of few position: it looks to me like Mr. Heebner has moved into commodity stocks, steel stocks, oil) I may add to UAG. Roger Penske, the key insider, has upped his position. The microcaps (penny stocks) in this particular retailing sector seem to me to have the best value now. (Maybe the most risk too.) I continue to buy them.