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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (25093)	11/6/2002 3:29:02 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi marcos, Agreed... Looking more and more like Japan albeit at a slower pace... One "benefit" of lower interest rates is that it tends to make holding cash a lousy investment, in particular if the real rate of inflation were to exceed interest rates available on cash or near-cash investments... I'm having a difficult time (in my mind) of justifying a long term investment in anything at the moment... Getting into bonds now could be portfolio suicide if/when interest rates recover. Stocks carry risks not seen seen since the Great Depression (except for Japan's current problems). Housing/real estate prices simply cannot continue to rise, as the price of median housing will soon be out of reach of the average family. Precious metals and some other commodities might offer a place to hide in the short term, but I suspect that those markets are heavily susceptible to "official" manipulation whenever the mood should strike. So what to do now? I don't have any obvious answers... KJC

To: marcos who wrote (25093)	11/8/2002 10:30:03 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>But a fed rate of 1.25, it starts to look like J.A. Pan & Co << History does not repeat... but it rhymes Check the opposites a) consumer behaviour +++ vs --- b) net business investment +++ vs --- c) account balance +++ vs --- ...whatever plus and minus signs mean, and whoever gets what. No repeats. But it rhymes - giant dislocation in both cases. Sure looks like Arnie Schwarzenegger with his twin brother Danny de Vito. regz dj