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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (52916)	11/6/2002 8:18:51 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Eric, I submit to you that the bottom set of numbers has GREAT relevance Me too! Now that Frank has his rally cap on, it's apparently so oversized that it's covering his eyes. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Eric L who wrote (52916)	11/6/2002 9:33:41 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 54805

Good post Eric! I've got a serious stake not in Qualcomm following substantially similar reasoning. But I'd even point at the TOP set of numbers. The 15% versus the 72% part. If I look at wireless as a whole cloth, then it appears that GSM is exhibiting Gorilla-like characteristics (although there is no specific gorilla to point to per-se). That leaves Qualcomm as a gorilla in a peculiar position, like one of those russian dolls. Kind of like musing that JNPR is the gorilla of non-Cisco routers and investing in JNPR without regard to what Cisco is doing. For example. Some people did that, of course. Ouch.

To: Eric L who wrote (52916)	11/7/2002 2:24:42 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 54805

Eric, if Q is a Chimp, it's certainly the biggest Chimp in the jungle. TFM cites some examples of making good returns on a Chimp. As far as the Three Amigos are concerned, two of them took good whuppings in the infrastructure sector that might have been more painful than any cdma shortfalls. Did you get a chance to look over Cisco's report? I'll be interested in your impressions. uf

To: Eric L who wrote (52916)	11/7/2002 4:40:18 AM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 54805

Eric- It will be very interesting to see what happens in China and India in the next 3 years, as well as deployment of whatever flavor of cdma in the gsm markets. Just because the GSM guys can't get there act together on WCDMA doesn't mean that those markets won't be upgraded to whatever cdma in the future. It can't be more obvious who is preparing the best for the GSM/CDMA markets. Just as obvious is that the GSM guys are strugling to get something worthwhile out there for consumers to buy while the 1x upgrades roll smoothly along. Caxton

To: Eric L who wrote (52916)	11/7/2002 9:33:27 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 54805

Qualcomm's value chain is decimated. Samsung and LGE are doing OK but they are doing ok because they are branched out into GSM and near term into 3GSM. If Samsung and LG had been primarily GSM players, I doubt they would still be in the market. Also, while some of Samsung's growth over the last year has been due to GSM, they indicated that much of the growth during the second half of this year is being driven by CDMA. As for LG, they are clearly trying to break into the GSM arena, but most of their current sales are in CDMA handsets (3.7 million CDMA units vs. 800,000 GSM during the third quarter). If anybody in Q's value chain was counting on a worldwide conversion to CDMA2000, they have clearly been disappointed. However, I dont think that many players in the industry have ever held this view (ok, maybe a couple of people in SD and on SI <g>). I think even Piecyk's infamous report was counting on growth in W-CDMA to fuel Q's prospects. Slacker