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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (149713)	11/7/2002 8:55:32 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Re i think the FED lowered mostly because of heighten geopolitical risks That's not what you think. That's what Fed said in their report. :) "Incoming economic data have tended to confirm that greater uncertainty, in part attributable to heightened geopolitical risks, is currently inhibiting spending, production, and employment." By the way, the Fed had clearly talked about this "geopolitical risk" (i.e. "war expectations" in plain English) before now. It is interesting that they cut 50 bp while the market expected 25 bp and just ahead of the UN vote on Bush's Iraq resolution, citing "war". My feeling is that this rate cut is not going to be so effective because the uncertainties related to the near future will continue to depress investments from the corporate side AND on the other hand, the consumer is already stacked up to his ears in debt and is not going to take on more debt to consume more electronics or take on another mortgage. The Fed should have cut 25 bp for morale and left the other 25 bp for January or so when the war starts, consumers plant themselves before CNN and stop what little they were consuming and investments really skid to a halt.

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (149713)	11/7/2002 10:35:22 AM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Short NVR @ 347. Max pain 365.