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To: Les H who wrote (203012)	11/7/2002 8:54:31 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Global: A Dissenting View Stephen Roach (New York) morganstanley.com

To: Les H who wrote (203012)	11/7/2002 9:05:41 AM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 436258

we already closed some e*trade accounts, don't trust them, and moved the boy's custodial account into a safe savings account i think some financials are going to blow before this is all over

To: Les H who wrote (203012)	11/7/2002 9:14:49 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Boxed-in on the car lot businessweek.com

To: Les H who wrote (203012)	11/7/2002 9:24:22 AM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

well, you heard cramer, buy financials, sell golds so there you go

To: Les H who wrote (203012)	11/7/2002 10:27:59 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Interesting - hadn't thought about the interest rate sweet spot for banks. At first rate decreases cause increased profits through wider interest margins, as interest rates paid drops faster than interest rates charged. But then you hit a point where you can't reduce interest paid any further. Either interest rates received drops, and bank profitability drops, or interest rates received becomes sticky, reducing transactional volume and bank profitability and inhibiting transmission of the Fed cut into the real economy. I think we are at that point now. I intuitively felt that the liquidity trap would be set with the Fed funds at some point in the 100-200 basis point range, but I didn't have a good reason why. Perhaps this is key. It's also entertaining (kinda like watching a horror movie is entertaining) to look at corporate bond yields. Despite the plunge in 10yr treasury yields, corporate yields are still at or above the lows of the 1990s: economagic.com economagic.com economagic.com BC