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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (52926)11/7/2002 10:15:13 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Interesting comment that I hadn't thought about. Do you believe that is likely to happen eventually to the small CDMA handset players? If so, why? If not, why not?

That's a damn good question....and one I am going to have to think about.

My initial thought is that it is going to be extremely hard to support the current number of players. In addition to the smaller Japanese and Korean players, the Chinese handset manufacturers are beginning to ramp capacity. Some of this is in JV's with foreign manufacturers, but a rising portion is likely to come from purely Chinese manufacturers.

I think the key to survival of the smaller players has been the fact that Qualcomm does much of the overall R&D in the CDMA space. This will probably continue to be true but I have to assume that the most efficient manufacturers will slowly but surely begin to take share (like Dell in the PC space). The profitability of the smaller handset players will probably be the key to watch going forward.

If I had known people were going to read my posts (and ask questions!), I would have kept my mouth shut ;-)....

Slacker