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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gg cox who wrote (4726)	11/7/2002 3:44:21 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

Regarding your strategy of buying on weakness..I don't think it apply's to NT.. ---- The strategy can be applied to all types of traded securities with some slight modifications or adjustments. It works best for the trusts because of the high current income being paid out each month from them. The strategy uses regression analysis to set up ranges. These ranges give the likely high ranges , average ranges and low ranges for the security using the securities own past trading numbers. After doing the math of it these ranges are set. When the trading price falls to close to or within the low range one would buy or accumulate on the way down staggering his purchases accordingly. He quite simply would not be buying in the high ranges. ----- I know a guy who bought NT on weakness all the way down from 80 bucks a share.. ------- The number crunching from my strategy shows that for NT $80 per share is in its high range. Therefore buying it then is a NO NO. A person following the strategy just would not do it PERIOD. You can confirm that yourself by going to the data source (FP DATAGROUP DIVIDEND RECORD AND 10 YEAR PRICE RANGE) I provided for the yearly high-low price ranges. And do the number crunching yourself. ------- was retired..now divorced..now forced back to work at a low paying job to pay for his foolishness... he didn't have anything left to buy NT between 67 cents and a dollar... -------- He didnt have anything left because he didnt follow the strategy like he was suppose to. You dont start your buying in the high range and stagger downward from there. You buy and accumulate near or in the low ranges. Thats what it says to do, again PERIOD. -------------- I heard the other day of a doctor who bought NT at $60 ..5000.. and still holding...gee I wonder if he bought on the way down at $30??.. $10...etc... ------- For NT , $60 is still not near or within its low range. The problem is that NT got too far ahead of itself according to the number crunching of my strategy around 1998 or 1999. Meaning that someone following the strategy would not have been running after it just because everyone else was buying it and it was going higher. He would have been a seller. Because that is what the strategy says to do at that time. Especially for a stock which pays little in the way of a dividend. For the trusts its okay to hold and just sit and collect the high monthly income until the price falls downward again. But for a stock your not getting the benefit of that high income so holding on in that case is not adviseable. --------- I took a loss on NT and it is already written off and wouldn't buy NT at 50 cents a share ...but that's just me. ------ Just like in the LUS.UN and MXT.UN examples of Lornes attack. Even if someone did suffer a 90% plus loss. Though that would be unlikely because you just don't buy at the highs. The near 300% gain from $0.67 would have easily erased any of the previous losses. Remember in the posting I said that the price of NT had already shown some bouncing around at the low levels at that time (around $2) that someone taking advantage of these and the ones to come going forward could easily result in wiping out any and all the previous losses. Even giving some nice positive returns. And that is just what came to happen. --------------------- -------- As you state you chose to take the loss and have nothing to do with NT again. Thats your right. But it does not mean it was the right thing to do. With what has just happened for NT going from $0.67 to over $2.00. That 300% return could have easily made up for any and all of your previous losses. That you choose not to do it doesnt mean that it didnt happen. IT DID. And that is all that matters. -----------------