To: Tommaso who wrote (14658 ) 11/7/2002 3:18:37 PM From: energyplay Respond to of 206131 NG draw down - I think the maerket is slow, and won't commit to energy until there is more visibility on Iraq. Remember,lots of the players think oil = natural gas and switching cost are near zero. Except for the majors, energy is not a heavily followed sector. You can see evidence of this when NG E&P move up after a big pop in gas prices and IT HAPPENS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER - APA,APC, then DVN,EOG and the next day XTO. Buying opportunity for more knowledgeable people. Many of whom have already commited, so no new buying yet. In some ways, the smart money is already in. Also, lots traders busy with big allocation moves, like these- THis is from Todd Harrison, a medium size hedge fund trader (the fund, not Todd)- *************from Minyanville.com ************** A lot of readers have been asking who the heck these “Macros” are and I wanted to quickly ‘splain, Lucy. They’re multibillion dollar hedge funds who actively trade all asset classes on a global basis. I suppose you might characterize them as a mutual fund on steroids and they tend to be very aggressive with their bets. I’m sure you’ve heard of many of them but, out of professional courtesy, I’ll stop short of naming names. Suffice to say that when they put on these monster bets, they have a vested interest in making themselves right. One of the trading tea leaves that helps identify the underlying tenor of the market is the macro flow. During the rippage off the October lows, these guys lifted the tape level after level and sucked fresh money into the self-fulfilling rally. I bring this up now as, for the first time in a while, we’ve seen some signs of macro selling (and allocation back into bonds) the last couple of sessions. With that said, please know my contacts are telling me that a particularly large macro is long out the kazoo and will attempt to defend S&P 900. I suppose it’s intuitive at a point (huge technical inflection point), but I wanted to make sure it’s on your radar.