Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (6081)	11/8/2002 1:52:14 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8010

I read all 88 pages of Silver Insitute report, but I'm still analyzing and developing comments to make here. The demand drop from 936.3moz in 2000 to 880.3moz in 2001 can almost be completely explained by the 44moz drop in fabrication demand. It's the weak economy that hurt silver, so I agree that the "future prospects of silver are highly dependent on the strength of the economic recovery" The photography numbers caught my eye, not because of the amount, but the minor trend - 1999=225.9 2000=219.5 2001=210.2 It is not much of a drop and it may take another decade before digital cameras affect photographic silver demand, but I would make the postal/e-mail comparison. E-mail has not put the post office out of business, but postal mail volumes has remained flat for years, while all of the growth has been in email. Standard photography may remain flat, with all new growth in digital. As previously mentioned, the 40moz+ annual potential of Barrick was about twice what I expected, and clearly puts Barrick in the postion to challenge Penoles (53moz estimated for 2002) as the world's largest silver producer. We better hope silver lease rates and prices do not get too high, otherwise Barrick might start seriously hedging silver. They may have resources close to 1 billion ounces ??

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (6081)	11/8/2002 2:13:27 PM
From: goldsheet	Respond to of 8010

Silver not Soccer Prediction: Peru May Beat Mexico in 2002 or 2003 I have made this prediction before, but SI report makes me somewhat more confident. Mexico (#1) did 89.7moz in 2000, then 90.8moz in 2001 Peru (#2) did 78.4moz in 2000, then 86.0moz in 2001 Penoles is doing well and should add a few million ounces, while Grupo Mexico might well offset it, leaving Mexico near 90moz in 2002. Peru's Antamina will add at least 6moz and if other mines remain flat, Peru could hit 92.0 moz for 2002. Also there should be a shift among #4 US (52.6), #5 China (48.9) and #6 Chile (43.4). As US continues its drop (last peak was 70.1moz in 1997) and the other two rise, we might see US drop to #6 ?? While I'm at it, Argentina went from #19 (3moz) in 2000 to #19 (5.3moz) in 2001. If Barrick adds 40moz to the equation by the end of the decade, Argentina could take the #7 spot away from Canada (43.4moz in 2001)