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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (9013)	11/7/2002 9:52:29 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Productivity Up, but Job Market Soft November 07, 2002 By Joanne Morrison WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. productivity chugged ahead in the third quarter as profit-starved businesses squeezed more out of their workforces instead of taking on new hires, a government report on Thursday showed. While strong productivity is seen as a key ingredient for a potent recovery, it has taken a toll on the labor market by keeping companies from stepping up hiring. Separate data showed that the job market isn't likely to improve any time soon, even with the added stimulus of the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point interest rate cut on Wednesday. The Labor Department said nonfarm productivity, or output per worker hour, grew at a 4.0 percent annual rate the year-ago quarter, after advancing by a weaker 1.7 percent in the second quarter. It was the fastest pace since the beginning of the year when the economy was in recovery from the 2001 slump. "I think the good news is that productivity is very healthy and is supporting economic growth. The downside is that this is the reason employment is going basically nowhere," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis. Labor Department numbers on jobless claims revealed a mixed picture of the job market. While the number of workers signing up for unemployment benefits fell last week, Labor's more reliable four-week moving average of these volatile data inched up, staying for the 10th straight week above the 400,000 level economists peg as designating a weak labor market. "I think we definitely have a jobless recovery. Businesses are shell-shocked by all the blows received over the past year and a half. They are relying primarily on overtime, technology and by not spending money on people, capital goods or inventories," said Sohn. Still, despite the hiring restraint of cautious businesses, consumers appeared to be holding up their part of the load for the economy, according to the latest retailers' data. U.S. retailers reported mostly higher October sales at stores open at least a year, helping alleviate fears sliding consumer confidence could create a disastrous holiday season and prompting some major apparel chains and department stores to raise their profit targets. "Despite what the consumer may say about being worried about the economy, they're still spending," said Bank One chief economist Diane Swonk. "Those who think the consumer is going to fall will be mistaken." Wells Fargo's Sohn agreed: "This to me demonstrates that consumers are going to keep the economic ship afloat." The cut in interest rates took the federal funds rate below the rate of inflation by some measures, which may help consumer spending by dissuading Americans from saving. STOCKS DOWN, LONG-TERM TREASURIES UP Stocks posted the largest drop in three weeks on Thursday as a poor sales outlook from technology heavyweight Cisco Systems Inc. weighed heavily on investor confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial average ended down more than 184 points, or 2 percent, while the technology-laced Nasdaq composite index ended off 42 points, or nearly 3 percent. Treasury bonds surged as investors doubted the Fed's rate cut would give a big boost to the economy or dispel disinflationary pressures. While markets were edgy about the economy, the signs weren't all bad on Thursday. Third-quarter productivity growth was a bit slower than the 4.3 percent gain forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, but economists were still heartened by the report. "The continuing robust productivity gains should lead to rapidly improving earnings once demand picks up," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. Unit labor costs, a closely watched measure of wage pressures, advanced at a 0.8 percent rate during the quarter, after a 2.2 percent rise in the second quarter. Economists were expecting costs to drop at a 0.6 percent rate in the quarter. But compensation per hour climbed by 4.8 percent, the biggest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2000. The strong productivity growth last quarter is likely to put the Fed at ease over its rate-cut decision to cut interest rates to keep the recovery going. Compared to the same quarter last year, nonfarm productivity grew at a 5.3 percent rate, the biggest increase since a matching gain in the third quarter of 1983. As it announced its interest-rate cut decision on Wednesday, the Fed noted in its statement that strong productivity growth was a positive force in its decision.

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (9013)	11/10/2002 9:48:51 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

DO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHO WON THE ELECTION ??? GOLD in every way possible: more govt deficit spending across the board less govt intervention to help the stock market less govt action to contain the dollar decline more military activity of extreme risk possibly veto offered by those who object and sell US bonds more concerted activity by Islamics to boycott the dollar slower economic conditions leading to certain recession more debt defaults, corporate and individual more city and state financial stress, higher taxes growing financial panic worldwide GOLD, LITTLE GRASSHOPPER, GOLD all hell is slowly now to break loose I have said for two months, that all hell breaks loose after the elections the USdollar has begun its resumption in decline gold advocates are slow to commit, but... BUILD A FIELD OF BROKEN DOLLAR DREAMS, AND THEY WILL COME it is hard for guys with cold feet and broad shoulders to grasp the GOLD potential at this early stage, but that is ok plenty of time to benefit and get onboard GOLD is heading well past #1000 the parallels to the 1970 decade will gradually crystallize this time now the imbalances are 3-5 times larger 1000 will be an eeeeeeaaaazzzy target / jim