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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (56162)	11/8/2002 12:49:40 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

So what is Saddam to do? We are going to get a lot of columns like this one the next few weeks. From the WP washingtonpost.com Hussein's Hobson's Choice By David Ignatius Friday, November 8, 2002; Page A31 With this week's completion of a U.N. resolution giving Iraq a "final opportunity" to surrender its weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein faces a stark choice: Disarm or die. In truth, they both amount to the same thing. Hussein is finished, and many Iraqis seem to understand that this story is now moving into its endgame. Having insisted that he does not possess any weapons of mass destruction, how can the Iraqi leader now turn these supposedly nonexistent weapons over to U.N. inspectors? Yet, if he fails to do so, the United States -- convinced by its intelligence reporting that such weapons do exist -- will launch a military attack to disarm him by force. Because of Hussein's defiance, this U.S.-led attack will have broader support now than it would have had two months ago. A faction within Hussein's government is said to be urging him to comply with the U.N. resolution. Give up the weapons, they are supposedly telling the Iraqi leader. The real source of Iraqi power is the country's scientific and technical expertise, they contend, which will still be there in a few years when the Americans have forgotten about Iraq again. The advocates of this compromise approach are said to include officials in ministries that have extensive dealings with the West on issues such as energy, trade and foreign affairs. But nobody in Hussein's inner circle is thought to be advocating compliance, and for a simple reason: They know that if he reversed course and gave up the weapons he has secretly been accumulating for so many years, it would amount to a disastrous loss of face. The regime's authority would crumble -- and Hussein, his family and inner circle would be more vulnerable than ever to attack. That's why Saddam Hussein is likely to seek a defiant and probably suicidal last stand, like the famous American battle of the Alamo. He has few other viable choices. He is damned if he doesn't capitulate to the U.N. inspectors and damned if he does. Reports of a slow-motion disintegration of Hussein's regime are making their way to the West. They can't be called "reliable" information -- nothing people tell you about Iraq really deserves that status -- but they are suggestive of what's going on inside the country. The first sign of discord is the debate that's said to be taking place within the leadership over what to do about the new U.N. inspections regime. Obviously, the faction arguing for compliance senses that the only alternative is a war Iraq would lose. A second sign of internal confusion is that some prominent Iraqis are said to be preparing for the end -- by getting their money and their families out of the country to safe havens that were prepared long ago for just such an eventuality. These Iraqis who see the writing on the wall are said to include some senior officials close to Hussein, although not members of his own immediate family. A third sign of the coming storm is that some prominent Arab businessmen are said to be positioning themselves for the change of regime -- and the postwar boom that is likely to follow. The Arab world may be uncomfortable with U.S. policy toward Iraq, but people recognize a business opportunity when they see one. From mobile telephony to manufacturing to infrastructure, there is a new Iraq waiting to be built. A final sign of the approaching endgame is that officers of key Republican Guard units are said to be weighing their options. An American psywar campaign is trying to assure them that if they stay in their barracks and don't fight, they will be safe -- that their soldiers, their families, their tribe, their Sunni religious minority and the Iraqi military class as a whole will survive. Part of this psywar campaign is an attempt to convince ordinary Iraqis -- and even some senior officials -- that they won't be held responsible for Hussein's crimes. The idea is to portray Iraqis as victims rather than henchmen. That's why the list of Iraqis likely to be charged in advance with war crimes will probably be relatively short -- to leave the door open for everyone else to cooperate. Whether this American policy of restraint and inclusiveness will persuade the Shiites of southern Iraq not to tear their local Baath Party representatives limb from limb is another story. But let it be said, fear of revenge can be a powerful motive to switch sides early. Some analysts are claiming that this process of defection is well underway. I don't believe it. The Iraqi military still needs to be convinced that the United States and its allies are serious -- that they are coming, with weapons that are devastating beyond anything seen in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. "They'll need to smell the exhaust of an Abrams tank before they switch sides," one analyst cautions. The reason these Iraqis are wary is that they remember the past 10 years, when America talked about liberating Iraq but did nothing -- and thousands of Iraqis who trusted the United States were slaughtered. No sensible Iraqi military officer will want to risk himself or his family this time unless he is sure. Keep your eye on Saddam Hussein as he is pushed inexorably toward the corner. I suspect that once the U.N. inspection regime is in place, he's a loser -- either way he moves. The danger is, how many Americans, Israelis and Arabs will he take down with him? The Iraqi leader has an endgame strategy, too. We just don't know what it is. washingtonpost.com